Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 23)
Calendar icon Published 22 Dec 14:07

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 23)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickToronto Maple Leafs
Player PropAuston Matthews over 0.5 points
Same Game ParlayToronto to win + Olivier Ekman-Larsson over 0.5 points + Sidney Crosby over 0.5 points
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Main Match Info

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline Prediction

The Maple Leafs will be happy to return home after a woeful three-game road trip, during which they conceded 14 goals while scoring just four. 

Unsurprisingly, that resulted in a losing streak, with defeats to the Washington Capitals (L 4-0), the Nashville Predators (L 5-3), and the Dallas Stars (L 5-1). However, returning home might be just what Toronto need to turn things around.

That’s because the Maple Leafs won the last time they played at home, securing a 3-2 victory over the Blackhawks on December 16. 

They’ve managed to take points in four of their last five encounters at Scotiabank Arena (W2, L1, OT2). Toronto should also feel comfortable about their chances given the opponents they’ll be facing, as the Penguins have been enduring a rough stretch of late.

Pittsburgh might be coming off a 4-3 shootout win over the Montreal Canadiens, but it was a hard-fought game that could’ve easily gone either way. That victory snapped their eight-game losing streak (L4, OT4), a run in which the Penguins allowed at least four goals each time. 

Considering their defensive woes and the fact that the Maple Leafs rank 12th in goals scored (3.11), Toronto should rely on their offensive prowess to get the win here.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop

Auston Matthews slumped badly during the Maple Leafs’ road trip and was unable to snatch a point in either of the team’s three losses, although he was active on offence with an average of 3.0 shots taken per game. 

Matthews recorded two points (one goal, one assist) in Toronto’s most recent home encounter against the Blackhawks, and returning to Scotiabank Arena might do wonders for him.

The Maple Leafs need their star players to perform at a high level if they want to get back to winning ways, and relying on Matthews often provides more joy than sorrow for their fans. 

He might rank fifth among Toronto players in points with 23, but he’s tied for first in goals with 14 alongside John Tavares. Expect the star playmaker to leave his mark in this one.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Same Game Parlay

The Maple Leafs should be able to get the win since they’ll have a sizable edge by returning home against a Pittsburgh team that have won just once in their last nine outings.

Toronto tend to play at their best at Scotiabank Arena, where they hold the third-best record in the Eastern Conference, having taken points in 15 of their 20 home encounters (W10, L5, OT5).

The Canadian side will probably need all the help they can get to secure the win here after an atrocious road trip, but one player who has left a good impression over the last few games is Olivier Ekman-Larsson. The blueliner has racked up two goals in Toronto’s last five contests despite going pointless on the road trip.

As for the Penguins, it’d be wise to trust Sidney Crosby to make his presence felt. Even though he’s no longer in his prime, he remains an elite contributor and notched two points in the win over the Canadiens on Sunday while becoming the franchise’s all-time leading scorer.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Team News

The Maple Leafs are uncertain whether Marshall Rifai will be available to play Tuesday, as the blueliner remains on injured reserve with a wrist problem but is considered a game-time call.

The rest of the absentees won’t be available, with some classified as long-term. The list includes Chris Tanev (upper body), Anthony Stolarz (upper body), Dakota Mermis (lower body), and Brandon Carlo (foot).

Pittsburgh Penguins Team News

The Penguins will be depleted, as they’re missing several players. They don’t have any game-time calls, although forwards Blake Lizotte (upper body) and Evgeni Malkin (upper body) should be able to return before the end of December

The remaining absentees are long-term. The list includes Harrison Brunicke (not injury related), Caleb Jones (lower body), Tanner Howe (knee), and Filip Hallander (leg). Prospect Peyton Kettles will miss the rest of the 2025-26 season with a shoulder injury as well.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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