I’m back to guide you through the upcoming Premier League matchweek with expert insights and analysis. Here are my five best bets for this weekend including Bournemouth in a bounceback spot and a well-rested Liverpool side looking to get right against Brentford.
Wolves vs. Tottenham (Saturday, November 11)
Yes, we saw Spurs get their first loss of the season on Monday when they were beaten by Chelsea, but you simply can’t overstate how much that result was impacted by the two red cards they received. Even with Destiny Udogie and Cristian Romero missing through suspension, in addition to the injuries to Micky can de Ven and James Maddison, I think this team should have more than enough to get past Wolves.
Wolves only have three wins on the season and I’m happy to take Spurs, even with missing players, at plus money. You’re not going to get that too often this season so take advantage.
- Pick: Tottenham to win (+115)
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle (Saturday, November 11)
Eddie Howe will be looking for a reaction from his Newcastle team following their defeat to Dortmund in the Champions League, a result that has made reaching the knockout stages incredibly difficult.
Bournemouth is in the perfect spot for a bounce-back game, with the club starting the weekend in the relegation zone. You can get +120 on Newcastle winning at halftime which feels like a great wager when you dig into the numbers this season. If games finished at halftime, then Newcastle would be third in the Premier League, and they’ve led in six of 11 games at the half. On the flip side, Bournemouth have been winning at halftime in just one game and have been losing in five.
- Pick: Newcastle winning at halftime (+120)
Liverpool vs. Brentford (Sunday, November 12)
Liverpool come into this on the back of an embarrassing Europa League loss to Toulouse on Thursday. With the greatest of respect to Jurgen Klopp, it was disrespectful and arrogant to bench so many of his regular starters.
However, thanks to the resting of Dominik Szoboszlai, Darwin Nunez, Mo Salah, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Alisson, who all started the game on the bench, it should mean they’re in great condition for this game.
The Bees come into this on a three-game winning streak in the Premier League but will struggle against a Liverpool team in front of their home crowd, especially one who have rested their best attacking players midweek. I’m expecting Liverpool to win easily and will go with Liverpool -1 on the handicap.
- Pick: Liverpool -1 (+110)
Aston Villa vs. Fulham (Sunday)
It won’t shock you to learn that nobody in the Aston Villa squad has more EPL goals this season than Ollie Watkins, but it might be a surprise to hear he’s matched on five goals by Douglas Luiz.
The Brazilian generally takes up a more defensive position in the midfield, sitting in front of the backline and developing attacks with his passing. He managed 11 Premier League goals across his first four seasons at Villa Park but has nearly half of that number through just 11 games this season. He’s averaging 1.8 shots per game, keeps popping up in dangerous areas and could be real value at +300 to score here.
- Douglas Luiz to score (+300)
Chelsea vs. Manchester City (Sunday)
You simply can’t afford to be carried away by Chelsea’s 4-1 win over Spurs, as they were outplayed when the teams were 11 vs. 11 and only managed to win because of the poor discipline of Spurs’ defenders. They now face Man City, the best team on the planet in my opinion, and the club who enter this weekend at the top of the Premier League table.
I’ll be the first to admit that -140 isn’t a big price but it’s still bigger than it should be in my view given how much better this City team are than Chelsea, and they’ve accumulated nearly double the amount of points (27-15, in just 11 games). The -140 odds imply a probability of 58.3% that Man City win, but given what we’ve seen of them in recent weeks I’d put those chances at far closer to 70%.
- Manchester City to win (-140)