Tonybet and Covers.com introduce a weekly EPL preview column from sports betting expert Sam Farley.
Fancy some football? I’m here to guide you through the upcoming Premier League matchweek with expert insights and analysis. Here are my five best bets for this weekend, beginning with an absolute gem between Crystal Palace and Tottenham.
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham (Friday, October 27)
Crystal Palace vs. Spurs is the first Premier League game of the weekend, taking place on Friday, and first feels about right for Spurs, who come into this top of the table. They’ve been hugely impressive this season, winning seven of nine games and scoring 20 goals in the process.
Tottenham managed to score at least two goals in all but one Premier League game this season, and the chemistry between James Maddison, Son Heung-Min and the rest of the Spurs frontline has been exceptionally evident.
We know that Roy Hodgson sets Crystal Palace up to be tough at the back, but it’s going to be very hard to stop Spurs’ irresistible attack. I’ll personally be backing them to score Over 1.5 goals on the road.
Pick: Tottenham Over 1.5 goals (-125)
Chelsea vs. Brentford (Saturday, October 28)
I’ll be the first to admit I thought Conor Gallagher’s time at Chelsea was coming to and end after the club signed Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia to bolster their central midfield alongside January acquisition Enzo Fernandez.
However, the Chelsea youth product has hung on, in part due to injuries to others. Not only has he started every Premier League game this season, but he has also arguably been Chelsea’s best player.
One thing that has been missing from Gallagher’s game, in comparison with last season, is bookings. Last season he played 35 games, only 18 of which were from the start, and he got nine yellow cards and a red card, with a booking every 3.5 games. So far this season, he’s received just one card in nine matches. This is despite tackling an average of three times per game, the second highest in the Chelsea squad, and committing 1.9 fouls per game, a club high. I fully expect we will see Gallagher get booked again soon.
Pick: Conor Gallagher to be carded (+140)
Wolves vs. Newcastle (Saturday, October 28)
Wolves have been impressive this season and come into this match having picked up eight points in their last four games. However, this is going to be a seriously hard test as Newcastle have won four of their last five in the Premier League.
After a disappointing 1-0 loss to Dortmund in the Champions League on Wednesday, plus the 10-month suspension for midfielder Sandro Tonali, it’s likely Newcastle will be hurting and wanting to bounce back and make a statement. They come into this weekend sixth in the Premier League and looking to continue their run and ensure they get Champions League action again next season.
Newcastle are simply the better and more motivated team, and they should be able to get past a tricky Wolves squad.
Pick: Newcastle to win (-128)
Aston Villa vs. Luton (Sunday, October 29)
Unai Emery has done an incredible job with Aston Villa since taking over last season. He managed to get them a European finish last term and now has them fifth and playing brilliantly.
Villa have managed to win six of their nine games, losing two and drawing one. That is despite scoring 23 goals, the second highest total in the Premier League. One of their biggest problems is that they keep allowing the opposition to score and have already given up 13 goals. Only two clubs in the top half have allowed more, and neither of those clubs are above Villa in the table.
We’ve seen Aston Villa win all four of their home games in the Premier League this season but notably they’ve allowed the opposition to score a solitary goal in three of those games. Luton may be one of the Premier League’s weaker teams, but they’ve still scored five goals in five away games and will have a real chance of scoring against a Villa team who had European action on Thursday and may still be tired or needing to rotate players.
Pick: Aston Villa to win and both teams to score (+170)
Manchester United vs. Manchester City (Sunday, October 29)
My final pick focuses on the final and most anticipated game in the Premier League this weekend: the Manchester derby between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford. Man City have lost two of their last three in the Premier League but are still -149 favourites for this game, and perhaps their recent form is the reason why these odds aren’t absolutely awful.
Man Utd may have managed to scrape a 1-0 win over Copenhagen in the Champions League this week but they’ve been terrible this season. Winning two Premier League games on the bounce doesn’t give me any confidence that they’ll be able to stop Pep Guardiola’s men this Sunday. They’ve basically been limping over the line in recent games, and I don’t trust them against a City team who will be welcoming Rodri back following a suspension.
Man City have won the last four meetings between these teams in all competitions and they are simply far superior as a team right now in nearly every respect. Man City always find a way, and even though they’ve had a poor couple of weeks they are too good to struggle here.
Pick: Manchester City to win (-149)