Ecuador vs Argentina Prediction, Preview, Team News and Lineups 09.09.2025
Calendar icon Published 05 Sep 12:12

Ecuador vs Argentina Prediction, Preview, Team News and Lineups 09.09.2025

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Odds via Tonybet
Ecuador vs ArgentinaTuesday, September 9, 2025, 8 PM EDT
Ecuador odds +215
Argentina odds +102
Draw+135
Both teams to scoreYes +119, No -164 

Ecuador vs Argentina Preview and Team News

Ecuador Team News

Ecuador have already clinched a spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is quite an achievement considering they began their campaign with minus-three points due to a punishment carried over from the 2022 FIFA World Cup process. 

One of their biggest strengths has been their home form, as the team remain undefeated at nearly 3,000 meters above sea level in Quito (W5, D3).

Even though Ecuador haven’t been as dominant at home as they used to, the fact that they’ve conceded a meager two goals in eight home matches, averaging 0.25 goals per game, is remarkable. 

The squad have the best defensive record in the entire World Cup qualifying run with only five goals allowed in 17 outings – and none in their last four (four straight scoreless draws)

It’s unlikely that La Tricolor will rest too many players, but since they’ve already punched their ticket to the 2026 World Cup, the possibility can’t be ruled out. 

Regardless of personnel, Ecuador’s defensive identity is clear, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them approaching this clash with a negative stance. Getting a point at home against Argentina would be a solid way to end their qualifying campaign.

Ecuador predicted lineup vs Argentina (4-5-1): Galíndez; Preciado, Hincapié, Pacho, Estupiñán; Plata, Franco, Caicedo, Vite, Yeboah; Valencia.

Argentina Team News

Argentina came through an emotional 3-0 home victory over Venezuela last time out. Despite Lionel Messi’s brace and the comfortable win over La Vinotinto, the atmosphere was nostalgic, as this marked Messi’s final competitive match with La Albiceleste in Buenos Aires. 

The star forward bid a farewell in the best way possible and raised his international scoring tally to 114 goals.

Lionel Scaloni’s men will close their qualifying run in a complicated venue, as the altitude of Quito is no joke for teams not used to those conditions. With that in mind, and knowing Argentina have already locked up first place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup CONMEBOL standings, Scaloni may opt for an alternative line-up. 

With nothing at stake, there’s little reason to risk his key players at nearly 3,000 meters above sea level.

Even though La Albiceleste hold the best away record in the 2026 FIFA World Cup CONMEBOL Qualifiers (W5, D1, L2), including two wins in a row on enemy soil, repeating that in Quito won’t be easy. 

Argentina are undefeated in their previous four fixtures at that venue (W1, D3), but the altitude remains a daunting challenge, particularly with Messi not expected to feature.

Argentina predicted lineup vs Ecuador (4-4-2): Martínez; Molina, Romero, Foyth, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Palacios; Almada, Martínez, González.

Ecuador vs Argentina Main Match Info

Ecuador vs Argentina Prediction, Odds

From a quality and experience perspective, there’s no doubt that Argentina are the better side and should be able to steal a point. However, most of Scaloni’s men play in Europe, which means they’re not accustomed to the 3,000 meters above sea level. That’s a factor that can’t be overlooked and might tilt things in Ecuador’s favour.

With that in mind and Messi not expected to start, Argentina may fail to win here. Even further, it wouldn’t be surprising to see La Tricolor dominate the game. 

Their defensive ability shouldn’t be underestimated, as evidenced by their 0.94 xGA (Expected Goals to be conceded).

Yes, you need to score goals to secure points. But in a situation where you’re the undisputed underdog, delivering an above-average defensive performance could go a long way. Ecuador have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five WC qualifying matches. It wouldn’t be surprising if they manage another shutout against an Argentina squad that could very well be plagued by backup players across the board. 

Ecuador vs Argentina Betting Tip

Ecuador are coming off a scoreless draw against Paraguay, and, oddly enough, each of their previous four matches in the CONMEBOL qualifying round has also finished 0-0. Furthermore, there have been a total of 18 goals scored (13 scored and five conceded) in their 17 outings so far. We could expect another low-scoring affair in the final game of the Qualifiers.

That’s because even though La Tricolor have scored 10 goals in their eight home encounters in Quito, six of those came in the wins over Bolivia and Venezuela earlier in the run. Five of Ecuador’s home fixtures have ended with under 2.5 goals, while six have also finished with only one or no team finding the net. 

Ecuador vs Argentina: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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