Spain vs France Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (July 14)
Calendar icon Updated 13 Jul 11:05

Spain vs France Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (July 14)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickFrance (+142)
Player PropKylian Mbappe to score (+100)
Same Game ParlayBoth teams to score + Over 2.5 goals + Under 2.5 cards (+310)
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Spain vs France Main Match Info

Spain vs France Moneyline Prediction

The two best teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup meet in the first semifinal. Spain enter this matchup with a ton of momentum and confidence. They’ve won five matches in a row, including difficult games against Portugal and Belgium, and have been excellent defensively, conceding just one goal in six encounters.

Spain’s calling card has been their defensive prowess, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to contain a French attack led by Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise. Les Bleus have dispatched Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco in the knockout stage, scoring six goals and conceding none in that span. If there’s one team with enough quality to slow La Roja down, that’s France.

If previous meetings are any indication, this game will likely go down to the wire. However, France have consistently found a way to overcome top-quality opposition throughout the tournament and have more individual quality than Spain. The margins are thin, but I expect Les Bleus to reach the World Cup final for a third consecutive tournament.

Spain vs France Player Prop

No defence in the world can slow Mbappé down, and the knockout rounds have only reinforced that notion. The Real Madrid star has found the back of the net in five of France’s six matches, including each of their three knockout-stage games. He’s also used to playing against the Spanish defenders. If Les Bleus are to reach the final, look for Mbappé, who has scored eight World Cup goals already in 2026, to carry them.

Spain vs France Same Game Parlay

The last three head-to-head meetings this decade have all produced over 2.5 goals, with both teams finding the back of the net, and we’re backing those trends to continue. Four of France’s World Cup matches have also gone over 2.5 goals, and the same line has been hit in two of La Roja’s last three.

We’re also expecting a disciplined contest in terms of bookings. Both Spain and France have received just three cards throughout the knockout rounds, and Les Bleus have gone card-free in two of those games. Expect the referee to let both sides play here, making the under a strong play. Neither France nor Spain are known for overly physical play.

Spain vs France Team News

Spain Team News 

Spain don’t have any injury concerns ahead of this match, with both Victor Muñoz and Nico Williams back in the squad. Williams came off the bench in the 2-1 victory over Belgium in the quarterfinals, but he may not be ready to start, so Álex Baena should retain his place on the left side of the attack.

The biggest selection dilemma concerns Pedri, as the Barcelona playmaker began on the bench against Belgium, but he’s widely expected to return to the starting lineup. Mikel Merino could also start after scoring back-to-back late goals against Portugal and Belgium. If the Arsenal midfielder joins the XI, Dani Olmo could drop to the bench.

France Team News

France will be monitoring the fitness of Marcus Thuram and Aurélien Tchouaméni. Both players were on the bench in the quarterfinal against Morocco. The absence of Thuram wouldn’t be a major concern, as he primarily provides depth in attack.

Tchouameni, meanwhile, has been starting when healthy, but if he’s not ready to return on Tuesday, then Manu Koné should get the nod in midfield alongside Adrien Rabiot. There shouldn’t be any other changes in the lineup, with the trio of Mbappé, Olise, and Dembélé ready to lead the squad once again.

Spain vs France: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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