Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 16)
Calendar icon Published 15 May 11:32

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 16)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickMontreal Canadiens
Player PropNick Suzuki over 0.5 assists
Same Game ParlayOver 4.5 goals + Juraj Slafkovský over 2.5 shots + Lane Hutson over 0.5 points
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Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Main Match Info

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Moneyline Prediction

Montreal are 60 minutes (or potentially more if overtime is required) away from reaching a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs.

In need of a response after their Game 4 loss, the Canadiens delivered arguably their most dominant performance of the series, cruising to a 6-3 away victory and putting themselves in a strong position to close things out at home.

That leaves the Sabres with their backs against the wall. While they’ve already won in Montreal, repeating that feat will be difficult unless they find a way to improve on special teams.

The Sabres rank dead last in faceoff percentage (43.5%), 11th in power-play effectiveness (14.3%), and 12th in penalty killing (78.9%) – numbers that are simply not good enough, especially on the road.

Complicating matters further is uncertainty in goal, with the Sabres weighing up either Alex Lyon or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for Game 6. Luukkonen started in Game 5, so common sense would probably dictate the return of Lyon, who has gone 4-3 with a 2.25 GAA and a .917 save percentage in the playoffs.

The Canadiens, meanwhile, will keep Jakub Dobes (2,28 GAA, .914 save percentage) between the pipes.

At the end of the day, all signs point to a Montreal win here. They’ve been the better team throughout the playoffs (sixth in goals scored and third in goals allowed, compared to Buffalo sitting seventh and ninth, respectively), and they should capitalise on home-ice advantage to close out the series.

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Player Prop

Nick Suzuki was the standout player for the Canadiens during the 2025-26 NHL regular season, posting 101 points, the sixth-best mark in the league, and he hasn’t slowed down in the playoffs. The star centre is tied for seventh in the playoffs in points with 12, tallying four goals and eight assists.

Expect Suzuki to thrive as a playmaker once again, as that’s the area where he can make the biggest impact.

He is coming off a dominant performance in Game 5, where he recorded three points (one goal, two assists) to help lead Montreal to a crucial road victory.

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Same Game Parlay

The line on over 4.5 total goals looks a bit low, especially given that the previous meeting produced nine goals.

Four of the five games in this series have featured at least six goals, but since this is an elimination clash, we’re playing this line a bit more conservatively than usual.

We’re partnering the over with two Montreal contributors who could play key roles offensively, reinforcing their status as favourites in this matchup. Even though Juraj Slafkovský has slowed down, as he has scored just one goal in his last 11 playoff appearances, he remains a reliable shooting option. He has taken multiple shots in four of the last five games and has cleared the line of over 2.5 three times already.

Even though Lane Hutson might not be much of a contributor in the goals department, he’s certainly a player worth keeping close tabs on when it comes to assists.

The star blueliner ranks fifth in helpers in the playoffs with 10 and second among defencemen, just behind Quinn Hughes (11). With six assists in the series, Hutson should be a reliable playmaking option for Montreal in the team’s quest to close out things.

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Team News

Montreal Canadiens Team News

The Canadiens are expected to remain unchanged from their previous lineup, as their lone injury concern remains Patrik Laine. The forward is dealing with an abdominal injury and won’t be able to return before the end of the series.

Therefore, Montreal are likely to stick with the same group following their dominant Game 5 performance.

Buffalo Sabres Team News

Similar to the Canadiens, the Sabres are not expected to make significant changes, with no new injury concerns ahead of this pivotal Game 6, as neither of their injured players will be able to return here.

Buffalo’s biggest doubt lies between the posts, with a decision still to be made between Lyon and Luukkonen. Beyond that, the lineup is expected to remain largely unchanged.

Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres: Where to Watch (Canada)

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