| Odds via Tonybet | |
| Netherlands vs Poland | Thursday, September 4, 2025, 2:45 PM EDT |
| Netherlands odds | -345 |
| Poland odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +459 |
| Both teams to score | Yes +137, No -170 |
Netherlands vs Poland Preview and Team News
Netherlands Team News
The Netherlands opened their qualifying campaign for the 2026 FIFA World Cup on a strong note, notching back-to-back wins over Finland and Malta, scoring 10 goals in total, and conceding none.
That kind of opposition is nowhere near the level of the Dutch squad, however, so those wins weren’t exactly shocking, especially given their cumulative 7.08 xG and the fact they held their opponents to a combined 0.29 xGA.
In short, Ronald Koeman’s men haven’t been tested at all so far, but Poland should pose a more legitimate challenge for Oranje. Even with those dominant victories, the Dutch side have been inconsistent recently, winning only four of their last 10 matches in regulation (including friendlies: W4, D5, L1).
All you need to know about #NEDPOL & #LTUNED! 🧵#NothingLikeOranje pic.twitter.com/zXeOE2WcA7
— OnsOranje (@OnsOranje) August 31, 2025
That includes a defeat on penalties to Spain in the 2025 UEFA Nations League quarterfinals
Koeman will be without Jeremie Frimpong, who’s sidelined with a hamstring injury. Still, he’ll have the rest of his best contingent available, including all-time leading scorer Memphis Depay, who just returned from injury with Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. He’ll be joined by the likes of Xavi Simons, fresh off his move to Tottenham, as well as Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo, and Virgil van Dijk.
Netherlands predicted lineup vs Poland (4-3-3): Flekken; Dumfries, van Dijk, de Ligt, Aké; de Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders; Gakpo, Depay, Simons.
Poland Team News
Poland also made their debut in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers during the June international window with a disappointing 2-1 loss to Finland on enemy soil.
Michał Probierz was without Robert Lewandowski for that contest, but the FC Barcelona striker is expected to lead the squad this time around. He has 85 goals across 158 appearances with the national team in his elite career.
However, not even the return of Lewandowski might be enough to secure a win in this complicated match against the Netherlands — arguably their toughest fixture in the group.
3⃣ dni do #NEDPOL! 🇳🇱🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/3Z3Xti82Bt
— Łączy nas piłka (@LaczyNasPilka) September 1, 2025
Defensive lapses remain their biggest concern, as they allowed a 2.46 xG against Finland. Those issues at the back have also contributed to Poland losing five of their previous 10 games overall (W4, D1, L5).
Most of the Poles’ struggles have come against top sides in the UEFA region. Their recent wins have been over Moldova, Malta FC, Lithuania, and Scotland, whereas their defeats have been against Finland, Scotland, Portugal, and draw with Croatia. They’ve also lost four of their last five meetings with the Netherlands (including friendlies: D1, L4) since 2020, which gives them a sizable psychological disadvantage.
Poland predicted lineup vs Netherlands (3-5-2): Skorupski; Bednarek, Kiwior, Kędziora; Cash, Szymański, Slisz, Zieliński, Frankowski; Lewandowski, Świderski.
Netherlands vs Poland Main Match Info
- Date and Kickoff Time: Thursday, September 4, 2025, 2:45 PM EDT
- Stadium: De Kuip
- Location: Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Last match: Poland 1:2 Netherlands (June 16, 2024, European Championship)
Netherlands vs Poland Prediction, Odds
- Pick: Netherlands to win with -1.5 handicap
- Odds: -114 (Tonybet)
- Correct score prediction: Netherlands 3-0 Poland
Poland’s defensive woes against top-notch opponents are well-documented, and the Netherlands have consistently held the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings.
Given that the Dutch are far more talented and experienced than their Polish counterparts, don’t be surprised if the Oranje cruise their way to an easy win on Thursday, even if Lewandowski leads the attacking line for the Poles.
The wins over Finland and Malta aren’t a fair reflection of what the Netherlands can bring to the table, but their recent results against tougher rivals are encouraging as well.
Hungry for more.#NothingLikeOranje pic.twitter.com/9BILdeXPmH
— OnsOranje (@OnsOranje) August 30, 2025
Aside from riding a 12-match undefeated streak against Poland dating back to 1978 (W8, D4), Koeman’s men have also recorded their last four wins by two or more goals. There’s enough tactical evidence to believe that might happen again.
Even though Probierz’s side will likely operate with three centre-backs, they’ll end up defending with five on a crowded line. They’re not expected to withstand the Dutch pressure throughout the entire game, and the Netherlands should eventually find the back of the net. Once that happens, they should be on course for a comfortable win.
Netherlands vs Poland Betting Tip
- Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -127 (Tonybet)
The Netherlands scored twice against Finland, but they could’ve ended that game with three or four goals easily. Meanwhile, the win over Malta can’t be used as a benchmark given the gulf in quality between the sides.
Before those two qualifying matches, three of the Oranje’s previous four encounters had ended with over 2.5 total goals.
The Poles’ outings have also featured plenty of scoring. Including their 2-1 defeat against Finland in the Qualifiers’ opener, five of their last eight contests have seen over 2.5 total goals. That trend extends to this head-to-head as well, with three of the last four meetings between Poland and the Netherlands clearing the same mark. All signs point to another high-scoring affair, especially if Koeman’s men dominate as expected.
Netherlands vs Poland: Where to Watch (Canada)
- DAZN Canada
- Amazon Prime Video
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