Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks. Shape of the Teams
The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Dallas Mavericks at home after narrowly defeating the Denver Nuggets in a heated game seven. And while not as exciting as ousting the Nuggets, Dallas comes into this game after beating the young OKC roster 4-2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s last-minute foul was still kind of BS, but at least it helped push Dallas to the Western Conference Finals.
Nonetheless, the Mavericks really have their work set out for them going into game one. Minnesota’s roster creates so many mismatches across the floor, and that’s without considering Anthony Edwards’s dominant play.
Karl Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are going to have a field day on the inside, blocking shots, grabbing boards, and dominating Dallas’ weak inside defence.
That’s not to say the Mavericks are helpless – far from it, actually. Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving have continued to play well, with Dončić, in particular, shooting fantastically. 66.7% from three in a huge game six is deadly.
As long as the Mavs find a way to stop the hemorrhaging on the inside, they should be in a good spot, but that’s the real question – will any defensive schemes really help their mismatch situation?
It’s a game we may not have expected, but it should be a great show, especially considering what both rosters have endured to get this far.
Odds via Tonybet
| Timberwolves vs Mavericks | May 22, 8:00 p.m EDT |
| Minnesota Timberwolves odds | -185 |
| Dallas Mavericks odds | +149 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves spread -4.5 | -108 |
| Dallas Mavericks spread +4.5 | -114 |
Minnesota will likely start off strong from the first quarter, capitalizing on some easy points, with Gobert playing down low and KAT playing the high post. They should both be able to shrug off Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II quite easily, even if the latter is 7’1.
Meanwhile, Edwards should be an overall positive presence on the court, scoring, defending well, and shooting decently at high volume.
Dallas is by no means defenceless, though, especially with the duo of Dončić and Irving creating one of the best backcourts we have ever seen. You can’t just stick one great perimeter defender out there and expect to get the job done; Mike Conley’s defensive presence has been big in the Wolves playoff success, but Dallas has two of the shiftiest guards in the NBA.
However, we still have some bad news for Dallas fans, we agree with the sportsbooks on this one, Minnesota is our heavy favourite. It’s just so hard to go against the squad that beat the reigning champs.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
- Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
- Odds: -114 (Tonybet)
Game one of the Western Conference Finals is fast approaching, and as long as things stay the same, we have to side with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The combination of Anthony Edwards, Karl Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Mike Conley has been stunning teams on the offensive side of the ball and clamping down on defence.
Edwards and Conley continue to play hounding on-ball defence night after night while KAT and Gobert hold down the fort, playing some of the best help defence in the game. But come on, if you’ve got those guys down low, who wouldn’t really get in the face of defenders, the help’s right there.
this is WHO. pic.twitter.com/TF2spqUsiC
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) May 20, 2024
While this is going on, the big guys should have no issues dominating the boards and getting quite a few putbacks, really putting salt in the wound. They say “defence wins championships,” but in the 2024 Western Conference Finals, it could be rebounding that really makes the difference.
On Dallas’ side of things, the bulk of the offensive load is going to fall on Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. The duo still accounts for the majority of the squad’s scoring, although there are quite a few bench players like Maxi Kleber and Tim Hardaway Jr. playing some impactful minutes.
As we mentioned before, though, the real question is going to be whether or not Dallas will be able to get some meaningful stops on the defensive side of the ball. But as things stand now, we are going to give an advantage to the favourite Minnesota Timberwolves.
NEVER GAVE UP. pic.twitter.com/5659FRKfIx
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) May 20, 2024
Following their game seven dub, they should have plenty of confidence to go along with their size inside. A quick dump pass to the high or low post may not seem like the most dangerous thing in today’s game, but Dallas likely won’t feel the same way.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Player Pick
- Pick: Luka Dončić to score more than 28.5 points
- Odds: TBD (Tonybet)
Luka Dončić hasn’t had the easiest shake so far in his career, oftentimes carrying lacklustre rosters deep into the playoffs, therefore inflating his own numbers. And while this year he does have a ton of help when compared to past rosters, much of the scoring load is still on his shoulders.
Because of this heavy usage and his great shooting splits in the last series, seeing Dončić score 28.5 points or more may not be a large stretch. Moreover, when his back is against the wall, he’s known for pulling anything and everything out of his bag of tricks, scoring by what seems like sheer willpower sometimes.
Lucky No. 7️⃣ @luka7doncic is the first player in @nba history with 3 straight triple-doubles to close out a playoff series.
The Magician, folks 🪄@ModeloUSA // #OneForDallas #MFFL pic.twitter.com/kYoDwFofpn
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 19, 2024
Don’t get us wrong, Dončić’s numbers scoring inside will likely take a slight dip with the Twin Towers inside, but his shooting is almost unstoppable. A quick pump fake and step back is all Dončić needs to bury a three in your face.
Anthony Edwards will definitely be able to at least slow down Dončić’s scoring in one way or another, but that doesn’t really mean 28.5 points is out of reach.
Disclaimer: Odds are accurate at the time of posting and subject to change. Please verify the latest odds on our platform before betting.
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