Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Nov 28)
Calendar icon Updated 28 Nov 08:03

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Nov 28)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickWashington Capitals
Player PropAlex Ovechkin over 0.5 goals 
Same Game ParlayAlex Ovechkin over 0.5 goals + Over 4.5 goals + William Nylander over 0.5 points
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Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Main Match Info

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline Prediction

The Capitals are coming off a 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets and seem to be trending in the right direction. Five wins in their previous six outings (including overtime) have them among the hottest squads in the Eastern Conference. The fact that they’ve beaten teams like the Jets, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Edmonton Oilers in that five-game stretch makes it even more remarkable.

The Maple Leafs are trending at the opposite end of the spectrum. 

Even though they’re coming off a 2-1 overtime win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, courtesy of a William Nylander OT goal, they’ve dropped three of their last five overall (W2, L1, OT2). Seven losses in their previous nine encounters (W2, L5, OT2) don’t really bode well for the chances of a Maple Leafs side that have struggled badly on defence all season long.

Toronto has won only two of their eight games away from home this season (W2, L6), while Washington have posted a decent W8, L5, OT1 mark when playing in front of their fans at Capital One Arena. The U.S. team should rely on their hot run of results, as well as the Maple Leafs’ notorious defensive issues, to come away with the victory this Friday.

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop

Few players in NHL history have had the keen eye for goal that Ovechkin possesses, and the Russian Rocket continues to perform at a high level even though he’s already 40 years old. 

Ovechkin is coming off scoring on Wednesday against the Jets, and he’s found the back of the net in five of the Capitals’ last seven outings, giving him seven goals (on 17 shots) during that stretch.

Sporting an elite – yet unsustainable – 41.2 shooting percentage over his last seven appearances, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ovechkin finds the back of the net again. 

He’ll be facing a struggling Toronto defence that has allowed 83 goals in 23 games this season, the worst mark in the Eastern Conference. Ovechkin has 11 goals and 22 total points in 24 encounters this season, so he continues to perform at a high level.

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Same Game Parlay

We’ll use a simple formula for the SGP, as we expect it to be a high-scoring matchup featuring two of the hottest players in the NHL going toe-to-toe. We’re talking about Alex Ovechkin, who happens to be the league’s all-time leading scorer, and William Nylander, who ranks among the most productive forwards in the NHL during the current 2025-26 season from a point-per-game perspective.

The first leg of our parlay comes from the over/under in goals. Considering that each of the Capitals’ last five outings has featured over 5.5 total goals, and that four of Toronto’s last five have had five or more goals, this looks like an attainable line. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two clubs have also finished with over 4.5 total goals.

Plus, Ovechkin and Nylander have been hot of late, and nothing suggests either will slow down. Ovechkin has nine goals in 13 contests this month, including a hat-trick against the Canadiens on Nov. 20, so he can fare well against Canadian teams. Meanwhile, Nylander has been the perfect model of consistency this season. He notched two points (G1, A1) against Columbus on Wednesday and is averaging over 1.5 total points per game this season with 31 in 20 appearances (G11, A20).

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs Team News

Washington Capitals Team News

The Capitals are close to being at full strength ahead of this matchup and don’t have many injury concerns. The lone doubtful player is Nic Dowd, who remains on injured reserve due to an upper-body issue, but he could be available to play Friday if he’s activated from IR after the morning skate. Pierre-Luc Dubois remains out due to an abdominal injury and won’t be eligible to return until March 2026 at the earliest.

Toronto Maple Leafs Team News

The Maple Leafs don’t have any new injury concerns ahead of Friday’s game after star winger Matthew Knies returned to the lineup in Wednesday’s overtime win over the Blue Jackets. Their list of injury absentees includes Brandon Carlo (lower body), Marshall Rifai (wrist), Anthony Stolarz (upper body), and Chris Tanev (upper body). Neither is expected back before the beginning of December at the earliest.

Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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