France vs Italy Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Oct 2)
Calendar icon Published 01 Oct 09:59

France vs Italy Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Oct 2)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickFrance (-228)
Player PropOusmane Dembele to score anytime (-108)
Same Game ParlayFrance to win + Both teams not to score + Under 3.5 goals (+240)
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France vs Italy Main Match Info

France vs Italy Moneyline Prediction

France couldn’t have asked for a better start under Zinedine Zidane, who replaced Didier Deschamps as Les Bleus’ manager after the 2026 FIFA World Cup. They opened their 2026-27 UEFA Nations League campaign with back-to-back 1-0 wins over Turkey and Belgium, remarkable results given the absences they’re dealing with.

Italy haven’t looked as strong as France, but the Azzurri at least earned a victory last time out, which gives them some positive momentum. They kicked off their UNL campaign with an ugly 2-0 home loss to Belgium, but they bounced back admirably with a 4-1 away win over Turkey.

Early signs suggest Italy are trending in the right direction, but facing France is a massive step up, and it remains to be seen whether they’re ready to take on one of the world’s top teams. Les Bleus have the edge in form, recent head-to-head record, and individual talent compared with the rebuilding Italian squad. Zidane’s men should come away with the win, especially in front of their fans.

France vs Italy Player Prop

Kylian Mbappe’s absence makes Dembele a likely option to lead France’s attack. The PSG forward, who’s had a slow start to the 2026-27 season with just two goals across all competitions, came off the bench against Belgium but should be in the starting XI this time around.

With the support of creative players such as Desire Doué, Rayan Cherki, and Michael Olise behind him, Dembele should generate plenty of scoring chances against an Italian defence that has conceded three goals in their first two UNL games. He could take advantage of those chances to find the back of the net.

France vs Italy Same Game Parlay

I’m backing France to win based on their edge in the head-to-head record and overall talent, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this clash ends up low-scoring. The team’s first two games under Zidane’s tutelage have ended in cagey 1-0 victories, and with Italy likely to sit back, another low-scoring match could be on the cards, especially given the Azzurri’s lack of firepower against elite sides.

Although the last four head-to-heads have ended 3-1 (France: W3, L1), that trend could stop here. France’s possession-based style could lead to a slower-paced match, and Italy don’t have enough talent to threaten the French defensive line, pointing toward the under on the 3.5-goal market. Les Bleus also look likely to earn a third consecutive clean sheet.

France vs Italy Team News

France Team News 

Several key players are sidelined for France ahead of this UEFA Nations League contest, but no absence will be bigger than Mbappe’s. The Real Madrid striker suffered an injury in the 1-0 win over Turkey and has already returned to Los Blancos’ camp to work on his recovery.

Mbappe is far from the only projected starter that will miss this matchup for Les Bleus, though. William Saliba (back), Aurelien Tchouameni (undisclosed), and Ibrahima Konate (knee) are also unavailable, as are Jean-Philippe Mateta (hamstring) and Warren Zaire-Emery (thigh).

Italy Team News

Italy are even more depleted than France, and they could field something close to a competitive starting lineup with all the players who weren’t considered for this round of international fixtures. Some of the standout absences due to injury include Federico Dimarco (knee), Alex Meret (muscular), and Manuel Locatelli (knee).

The Azzurri are also without players who could contribute on offence, such as Federico Chiesa (back) and Giacomo Raspadori (thigh), as both are dealing with fitness issues and a severe lack of playing time. The same goes for the wing-backs, as Andrea Cambiaso (ankle) and Leonardo Spinazzola (muscular) have been ruled out through injury, as has Roma midfielder Bryan Cristante (undisclosed).

France vs Italy: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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