San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 22)
Calendar icon Published 22 May 11:33

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 22)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickSan Antonio Spurs
Player PropVictor Wembanyama over 39.5 points + rebounds
Same Game Parlay (Bet Builder)Spurs -1.5 + Over 216.5 points + Stephon Castle over 7.5 assists
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San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Main Match Info

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Prediction

The first two games of this thrilling Western Conference Finals have been exciting, and the Spurs stole home-court advantage after a double-overtime win in the opener.

The Thunder responded with a Game 2 victory, but it wasn’t decided until the closing minutes. The series now shifts to San Antonio.

The Spurs are 4-2 at home in the playoffs, but both losses, against Portland and Minnesota, came in encounters where they wasted fourth-quarter leads and lost by fewer than five points.

They can’t get off to a complacent start against a Thunder team that have gone 4-0 on the road in the current playoff run. However, based on how the two games have unfolded, it’s hard not to lean toward the Spurs in this one.

Across both the regular season and the playoffs, San Antonio hold a 4-2 head-to-head lead over the Thunder. That includes wins in both meetings at Frost Bank Center, each by at least 10 points. This one should be closer, but the Spurs should have enough quality to regain the series lead if they take better care of the ball.

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Player Prop

The Spurs need Wembanyama to be at his absolute best on both ends of the court. The Frenchman has already shown he can handle the Thunder’s frontcourt duo of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, and that matchup should again be central.

While Wembanyama was “limited” to 21 points and 17 rebounds in Game 2, he notched 41 points and 24 boards in the series opener. He’s also cleared at least 38 points + rebounds in four of his last six appearances.

That gives us strong statistical evidence that the star centre will be able to surpass this line in a favourable matchup on paper.

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Same Game Parlay

The Spurs are favoured to get the victory here despite the Thunder’s 4-0 away record in the playoffs, and if they do, they should also cover the -1.5 spread.

Mitch Johnson’s men have covered that number in every postseason victory so far, and in each of their four wins over OKC in 2025-26 as well.

The fact that both games in this series have cleared the 230-point mark suggests this one should hit the over once again, as the line is being set too conservatively.

Despite the elite defensive performances from both teams, the first two meetings have shown that offence will have a much bigger role.

Lastly, look for Stephon Castle to take on a prominent role as a playmaker due to the likely absences of both Fox and Harper. The second-year guard has dished out at least eight assists in the first two encounters of the series.

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Team News

San Antonio Spurs Team News

The Spurs could be missing two key backcourt players, as De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are listed as questionable. Fox has yet to suit up in the series, while Harper exited Game 2 with a leg injury and didn’t return.

The absence of both players means Castle will be tasked with handling a bigger role in the playmaking department, while Wembanyama will be even more important on offence.

Aside from the lack of depth that these two absences create, Fox and Harper have arguably been among the most important players for the Spurs in this playoff run.

Oklahoma City Thunder Team News

The Thunder could be without their No. 2 option on offence after Jalen Williams exited Game 2 due to an apparent hamstring injury. It would be the third time this season Williams has been diagnosed with a hamstring problem, and he’ll be assessed on a day-to-day basis.

If Williams doesn’t suit up on Friday, several players will need to step up offensively. Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, and Alex Caruso are all expected to handle increased roles.

Caruso has been clutch for the Thunder in this series after shooting 11-for-18 from three in the first two contests.

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Where to Watch (Canada)

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