Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (April 29)
Calendar icon Updated 28 Apr 12:04

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (April 29)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickTampa Bay Lightning
Player PropBrandon Hagel over 0.5 goals
Same Game ParlayUnder 6.5 goals + Nick Suzuki over 0.5 assists + Jake Guentzel over 0.5 assists
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Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Main Match Info

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline Prediction

Given how tight and closely-contested the games have been so far in the series, it wouldn’t be a stretch to consider this series as the most exciting one of the first round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs so far.

All four games have been decided by just one goal, and three of the games have gone to overtime ahead of a pivotal Game 5, where the series returns to Tampa Bay.

The Lightning should be filled with confidence after avoiding a 3-1 deficit with a 3-2 victory on the road the last time out.

Being back at Benchmark International Arena should be a huge boost for the Lightning, as they posted a W26, L14, OT1 home record in the regular season. However, the Canadiens went W24, L9, OT8 on the road, so they won’t be an easy team to play against.

As has been the case throughout the series, this game will be decided by details and thin margins. Both teams have been thriving in the power play — and conversely, struggling to kill penalties — so special teams should play a big role once again.

Even though home-ice advantage hasn’t been as big as expected so far in the playoffs, the Lightning should have what it takes to come away with the win here.

The atmosphere should be electric in Tampa, and the Lightning, who were one of the best teams in the NHL in the regular season, should feed off that to come out on top and put themselves just one win away from the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop

While common sense would indicate going after Nikita Kucherov as a potential goalscorer in this matchup, the reality is that Kucherov hasn’t been much of a factor as a scorer.

He has six points so far in the series, but he’s scored just once on 14 shots. Thus, we’re relying on Brandon Hagel to make a big impact for the Bolts.

Hagel has scored six of the Lightning’s 11 goals so far in the series. Even though he’s widely expected to regress at some points, as he’s scored those six goals on just nine shots, he seems to have cracked the Canadiens’ defence.

Look for Hagel to continue his strong play in a game where the Lightning are favourites on paper.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Same Game Parlay

Even though the first four games of the series have been extremely intense, both teams have shown excellent goaltending — both have allowed just 2.75 goals per game in the series.

Considering that the previous games have been tight and that the stakes are very high, I wouldn’t expect either team to leave too many spaces on the defensive end. The under 6.5 goals trend has held in the last three games.

Two players who should find a way to step up regardless of whether the game ends up being a high-scoring or low-scoring matchup are Nick Suzuki and Jake Guentzel, as both have thrived as playmakers for Montreal and Tampa Bay, respectively.

Suzuki currently leads the Canadiens in assists in the playoffs with four, and he’s coming off a career-best season in the 2025-26 regular season after being just one of eight players who had at least 100 points.

As for Guentzel, he leads the Lightning in points (seven) and assists (six) so far in the playoffs, and he should continue to find ways to make an impact as long as the Habs focus on stopping the likes of Kucherov and Hagel.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Team News

Montreal Canadiens Team News

The Canadiens are quite close to being at full strength ahead of this game. The lone two absences continue to be Noah Dobson (upper body) and Patrik Laine (abdomen). Both players are progressing in their recoveries, and while both are out for the remainder of the series, they should be back for Montreal at some point in the postseason.

Tampa Bay Lightning Team News

The Lightning won’t be dealing with many injuries ahead of this contest, as the lone player who has a shot at returning to action on Wednesday is Charle-Edouard D’Astous, who’s dealing with an undisclosed injury. Victor Hedman (personal) and Pontus Holmberg (upper body) are both out for the remainder of the series but could return later in the playoffs.

Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Where to Watch (Canada)

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