| Moneyline Pick | Italy to Win (-304) |
| Player Prop | Mateo Retegui to Score (-130) |
| Same Game Parlay | Italy to Win + Mateo Retegui to Score + Under 3.5 Goals |
| Check Live Odds | |
Italy vs Northern Ireland Main Match Info
- Date and Time: Thursday, March 26, 2026, 02:45 PM ET
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Location: Italy
- Last H2H match: Northern Ireland 0-0 Italy (WC 2022 Qualifiers, November 2021)
Italy vs Northern Ireland Moneyline Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Italy to Win
- Odds: -304 (Tonybet)
This is a playoff semi-final, and Italy are chasing their first World Cup appearance since 2014 after missing the last two editions. That adds emotional pressure but also heightens motivation.
Recent results also favour the Azzurri. They’ve won six of their last seven encounters, with the 1-4 loss to Norway forcing them into the playoffs. Northern Ireland finished third in their group with nine points from six matches and have managed just one win in their last nine away fixtures. As a result, Italy enter as clear favourites.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Player Prop
- Prop Bet: Mateo Retegui to Score
- Odds: -130 (Tonybet)
Retegui was Italy’s leading scorer in this qualifying campaign with five goals, along with four assists. In a match where the Azzurri are expected to control territory and create repeated box entries, the centre-forward will be crucial.
He finished the 2024-25 Serie A season as the top scorer with 25 goals before transferring to Al-Qadsiah, where he’s already netted 15 goals in 25 appearances.
Italy should dominate possession, territory, and shot volume. If Northern Ireland hold for a while, that still works for Retegui as it would mean a long spell of crosses, box touches, and pressure against a compact defence.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Same Game Parlay
- SGP: Italy to Win + Mateo Retegui to Score + Under 3.5 Goals
Italy to Win: Italy have won four of the last six head-to-head meetings. With home advantage in a playoff setting, they are well positioned to secure the victory.
Mateo Retegui to Score: Retegui led Italy with five goals in the group stage and remains their primary attacking threat. Given the Azzurri’s expected control of the game, he stands out as the most likely scorer.
Under 3.5 Goals: In a tight playoff match, Northern Ireland are unlikely to open up. Moreover, all encounters between the teams have produced fewer than four goals, making under 3.5 goals a solid pick.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Team News
Italy Team News
This marks another March playoff for a nation that has already missed the last two World Cups. The 4-1 defeat to Norway underlined the growing pressure surrounding the team.
Sandro Tonali has been included in the squad despite recent fitness concerns. He is one of the few Italian midfielders who can accelerate transitions instead of just circulating possession.
Locked in 🔒#Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/GGLKvnUjcb
— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) March 24, 2026
Francesco Pio Esposito is another name. He scored in Inter’s 1-1 draw against Fiorentina on Sunday and now has three goals in his first five appearances for the national team.
The most important late change is Federico Chiesa. He was recalled, then sent home, with Nicolò Cambiaghi called up in his place. Guglielmo Vicario is also out after Tottenham confirmed he will undergo hernia surgery.
Northern Ireland Team News
Northern Ireland have made it to the playoffs through the Nations League. In the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, they collected nine points from six matches, while scoring only seven goals.
Shea Charles is back after missing the November games through injury. Ali McCann also returns, along with Brodie Spencer and goalkeeper Pierce Charles. The other notable story is Kieran Morrison’s first senior call-up after he scored 13 goals in 17 appearances for Liverpool’s Under-21s.
The biggest absence is Conor Bradley. Jamal Lewis, Luke Southwood, Ryan Johnson, and Ross McCausland have also been left out, while Dan Ballard made the squad despite an injury scare.
Italy vs Northern Ireland: Where to Watch (Canada)
- DAZN
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