| Odds via Tonybet | |
| USA vs Mexico | Sunday, July 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT |
| USA odds | +190 |
| Mexico odds | +148 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Both teams to score | Yes -108, No -129 |
USA vs Mexico Preview and Team News
USA Team News
The USA secured their place in the 2025 Gold Cup final after defeating one of the tournament’s surprise packages, Guatemala, 2-1 in the semifinals. A first-half brace from Diego Luna was everything the Americans needed to clinch the victory.
However, their second-half play could be a cause for concern, particularly on the defensive end, as they allowed Guatemala to get too close to an equalizer.
Mauricio Pochettino has done a good job of fielding a competitive side despite missing several players who would typically feature in a full-strength eleven. Luna, Patrick Agyemang, Max Arfsten, and Sebastian Berhalter have been among the standout players for the USMNT in this tournament.
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A FINAL! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/D7N8p1oH20
— U.S. Soccer Men’s National Team (@USMNT) July 3, 2025
The attacking prowess has also been notable – they’ve scored 12 goals in five Gold Cup encounters.
One area for concern for the USA squad is how easily teams can score against them. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three games, but despite those struggles, don’t expect Pochettino to make too many changes to the core of the group that has been playing of late. That’s a tendency the Argentine manager also showed during his previous managerial stints at PSG and Tottenham.
USA predicted lineup vs Mexico (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards, Arfsten; Adams, De La Torre; Berhalter, Tillman, Luna; Agyemang.
Mexico Team News
If the USA have built their path toward the 2025 Gold Cup final by virtue of their defensive play, then Mexico have done the opposite. Javier Aguirre’s men delivered another excellent defensive performance in a 1-0 win over Honduras in the semifinals, limiting their rivals to only six shots (one on target) and winning the xG battle 1.26 to 0.10. Simply put, their win was never in doubt.
The victory over Honduras in the semifinals was their fourth consecutive clean sheet since conceding two goals in their debut against the Dominican Republic.
GOLD CUP FINAL BOUND! 🤩
We defeated Honduras and will defend our title in the Grand Final. 🏆.
Let’s go! #PorMéxicoTodo 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/shb67KNle2
— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) July 3, 2025
Perhaps even more impressive is that Mexico haven’t allowed an xG higher than 0.35 in any of those four games with a clean sheet, which means that opposing teams are struggling even to create clear-cut chances against El Tri.
The Mexicans won’t have any key players missing for this title-clinching battle. However, Aguirre hasn’t repeated the same eleven in any of their previous five matches at the 2025 Gold Cup.
Don’t expect that to change now, although the key players such as Édson Álvarez, Raúl Jiménez, César Montes, and Luis Malagón should all feature in the starting lineup.
Mexico predicted lineup vs USA (4-3-3): Malagón; Araujo, Vásquez, Montes, Chávez; Ruiz, Álvarez, Mora; Vega, Jiménez, Pineda.
USA vs Mexico Main Match Info
- Date and Kickoff Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
- Stadium: NRG Stadium
- Location: Houston, Texas, USA
- Last match: Mexico – USA 2:0 (October 15, 2024, Friendly)
USA vs Mexico Prediction, Odds
- Pick: Mexico to win the title
- Odds: -136 (Tonybet)
- Correct score prediction: USA 1:2 Mexico
These two CONCACAF giants will once again collide in an epic battle for continental glory, and unlike what has happened in recent head-to-head meetings, this match could see plenty of goals both ways.
Still, Mexico are in slightly better form and should be considered the favourites to lift the trophy once it’s all said and done. Their defensive play has been consistently improving as the Gold Cup has progressed.
The USMNT might have enough quality to score at least one goal in this clash, as the play of Diego Luna and Patrick Agyemang in the final third will be hard to contain. However, Mexico have the better team and far more experience. As if that wasn’t enough, they also have an edge on the bench when comparing Aguirre and Pochettino. It should be a tight contest, but the visitors are expected to win the title.
USA vs Mexico Betting Tip
- Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +160 (Tonybet)
The recent head-to-head history between the USA and Mexico is filled with thrilling meetings, though there haven’t been a lot of goals recently. Four of their last five encounters have ended with a total of under 2.5 goals, and only one of those five saw both teams score. However, expect that trend to change here, as there’s enough evidence from this tournament alone to suggest that.
Mexico have shown strong defensive play, but the same can’t be said about the Stars and Stripes. Their last three matches have seen both sides find the back of the net with over 2.5 total goals, and there’s good reason to believe that trend will continue. Their shaky backline could struggle against Mexico, but the USMNT have scored two or more goals in four of their five Gold Cup games. We can expect a high-scoring affair to take place this time.
USA vs Mexico: Where to Watch (Canada)
- OneSoccer, TSN, RDS
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