Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks. Shape of the Teams
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks at home for the first game of the second round of the playoffs. The OKC Thunder, fresh off a 4-0 sweep over the New Orleans Pelicans, will be looking to get off on the right foot, especially considering they don’t exactly have the same playoff pedigree that Dallas boasts.
First things first, let’s get the elephant out of the room. The Pelicans weren’t the hardest first-round matchup in the world, so OKC’s 4-0 sweep isn’t a huge deal – but it’s big for the young team. The confidence that Oklahoma brings to this second-round matchup will be huge.
So far, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has continued his dominance from the regular season, while Jalen Willaims and Chet Holmgren have been excellent second and third options. Holmgren, in particular, has been huge, as his spacing causes defenders to stick to him as he can shoot or drop to the low post for an easy basket.
That being said, the Dallas Mavericks are still a strong team in the eyes of bookmakers and a ton of fans.
Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving have been able to will this roster to some wins, with both players having big nights during the Clippers series. Just look at Irving’s 40-point outing on the 28th, where he shot 56% from the floor.
OKC definitely seems to have more depth overall, and SGA may have some struggles against the duo of Dončić and Iriving, but this should be a fun series.
Odds via Tonybet
| Thunder vs Mavericks | May 7, 9:30 p.m EDT |
| Oklahoma City Thunder odds | -164 |
| Dallas Mavericks odds | +140 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder spread -4.5 | +106 |
| Dallas Mavericks spread +3.5 | -110 |
Despite bookmakers giving the edge to the Oklahoma City Thunder going into this one, we have to side with the vets, Dallas.
OKC has yet to really show any grit about how they’ll respond to a more competent team, as the perimeter offence brought by Dallas’ dynamic duo will need to be kept in check. If Josh Giddey and SGA can manage to keep both Dončić and Irving under control, it’s a wrap; however, it’s hard to see either putting the clamps on.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander himself is known for being quite shifty, but he’s undersized if he checks Dončić and may not be able to keep up with Irving’s first step. Giddey will also struggle to keep perimeter scoring to a minimum.
Don’t get it twisted, though, we haven’t counted OKC out of the game by any means, because if you compare bench depth, the Thunder have Dallas beat every day of the week.
Regardless, game one should really set the tone for the series going forward and will give us a better look into how OKC exactly performs against a real playoff team.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
- Pick: Dallas Mavericks -3.5
- Odds: +200 (Tonybet)
Bookmakers may have the Dallas Mavericks sitting as the underdog going into game one, but we aren’t exactly leaning in the same direction. Dončić and Irving have both been on fire throughout the playoffs so far and have a great shot at beating out the younger OKC squad.
It is quite unfortunate that the duo is carrying around the rest of the roster like a sack of potatoes, but the load was light enough to come out on top against a solid Clippers team. As long as at least one or two roleplayers like P.J. Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. show up and make some solid performances, it should be enough to push Dallas over the edge.
SGA will likely check up on Irving while Giddey defends the 6’8 Dončić, which is a mismatch on both fronts. SGA doesn’t have the strength to stay on Irving’s hip, and Giddey is ripe to get dropped by a quick step back, so it’s lucky they have a great shot blocker in Holmgren to clog the paint.
However, Oklahoma is far from a weak team and should make Dallas work for the dub every single night, including game one. The young guys will be looking to set the tone early and hopefully come out with a game one victory, just like Dallas.
SGA is still one of the shiftiest guards in the NBA, and while he can’t stay in front of Irving, Irving will also struggle to stay in front of him. Making matters worse for Dallas, OKC again has an actual big man to play inside.
Although we may not have expected a crazy amount from the Dallas Mavericks going into the 2024 NBA playoffs, after watching that first series, we have a lot more trust in Dončić and Irving to carry the team.
The Mavs should be okay as long as they don’t get beat up too hard inside, and they’re able to at least somewhat lessen SGA’s offensive output. He may be one of the best point guards in the game, but he’s still super ball-dominant and can be keyed in during the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Player Pick
- Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score under 28.5
- Odds: -105 (Tonybet)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been fantastic throughout the playoffs, averaging 27.3 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists a night, leading the offence. His ability to change direction on a dime and thread the needle through defences is almost unmatched, but NBA basketball doesn’t necessarily favour his style of play.
His playstyle limits him to around the 25-30 point mark during the NBA playoffs, outside of one 33-point night in game three of the last series. And with Irving and the rest of the defence likely hyper-focused on SGA, his numbers may take a slight hit, sitting closer to that 25 number.
Instead, when the defence keys in on him, he’ll likely dump the ball to Holmgren or Jalen Williams, boosting the stats of both players. In specific, Holmgren should have a huge night, taking points away from SGA.
SGA should still have a solid night in game one, but with the defence focusing on him, there’s a decent chance his scoring number drops a bit below that 28.5 number.
Disclaimer: Odds are accurate at the time of posting and subject to change. Please verify the latest odds on our platform before betting.
