Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Tips 26/04/24
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Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Tips 26/04/24

Kaleb Vanderhorst

Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Shape of the Teams

Following the 109-97 beatdown in game one of the series, the Dallas Mavericks managed to pull out a win at home for game two, bringing themselves back into the series. After being thrashed on the inside all throughout the first contest, the Mavs managed to bring back game two in the third quarter, rallying from behind.

However, even with the win, game three won’t be a cakewalk for Dallas. There’s a good chance Ivica Zubac and James Harden will double down in game three, trying to shred the Mavericks’ defence with quick pick-and-rolls and easy dump passes to the low post.

Zubac showed in game one that there really isn’t anybody on the Mavs who can stop him once he gets to his spot – it would be nonsensical not to feed the big man when he’s getting so many easy baskets.

On the Mavericks side of things, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving both put on a show against the Clippers for game two, scoring 32 and 23 points respectively. Dončić seemed almost unstoppable, and some of the Mavs roleplayers finally stepped up to fill the gap.

It was going to be an uphill battle for Dallas regardless of going into this series, but it’s a great sign to see nonetheless. At first, we may have been skeptical but we have changed our tune, at least slightly, after watching the Mavericks kill the Clipper’s momentum.

Odds via Tonybet

Clippers vs MavericksApril 26, 6:00 p.m EDT
Los Angeles Clippers odds+138
Dallas Mavericks odds -169
Los Angeles Clippers spread -3.5 +190
Dallas Mavericks spread -3.5 -116

That being said, bookmakers may have gone a little bit too far in the Maverick’s favour, as they have swung from a slight underdog to a favourite. Even with the Mavericks bench finally showing up in game two, the Clippers seem to have an overall better team, at least on paper.

As long as Kawhi Leonard manages to be a net positive on the night, as opposed to his -8 +- last night, the Clippers should be in a good spot.

The Mavs still haven’t managed to cover the massive hole Harden exposed in the center of their defence. They are slow to help, overcommit on the ball, and have no real size to deal with a quick dime or dump pass.

Again, while most bookmakers view the Dallas Mavericks as the favourite going into game 3, their team composition doesn’t fit well with playoff basketball, leading us to give an edge to the Clippers.

Dončić and Irving are spectacular players, no matter which way you look at it, but at the end of the day, defence wins championships.

Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

As long as Kawhi Leonard plays even half decently, the Clippers are not to be trifled with, especially with how well Harden has been playing lately. He’s shooting great, passing, and commanding space, unlike almost any other point guard in the NBA right now.

Despite the third-quarter woes in game two, we still trust in the Clipper’s big three, and  Zubac’s ability to back down a number of smaller players in game three of the series. When you have to pay attention to the big guy down low it frees up tons of room for shooters like Harden, Paul George, and Leonard, and as long as they shoot with better splits than last night, it should be okay.

The entire Clippers roster was playing pretty well, and their defence was decent – it’s just that their shooting was quite poor last night, sitting in the low 40% range for both Harden and Leonard.

On the Maverick’s side of things, it was great to see the team dig themselves out of a deficit in the second half, especially with neither Dončić nor Irving having a miracle 40-point night. However, the Mavs still didn’t rebound, box out, or show any flashes of great defence.

If you can’t at least put in some effort and box out a man or two, it’ll be tough to go far in a seven-game series. That being said, it’s not just a personnel issue, Coach Kidd needs to get on the case of his players – they need to feel more accountable when it comes to the boards.

If Kidd can get his head out of the sand and get his players boxing out, we very well could be making an argument for Dallas, but that’s just not the case.

From our perspective, there seems to be a huge mismatch in terms of overall team quality and coaching calibre, leading us to give the Clippers an edge.

Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Player Pick 

Zubac was completely dominant in game one, especially in the first half of play – backing down defenders and grabbing a number of easy buckets. And it doesn’t seem like a stretch for him to take it up a notch for game three.

Plain and simple, the Mavericks don’t have any big enough bodies to slow Zubac down on the pick-and-roll and certainly can’t stop him once he gets to his spot. Don’t get us wrong, he isn’t an Anthony Davis-level player by any means, but if you don’t have a body to mark him, he’ll make you pay.

We also have to give credit where credit is due, much of Zubac’s scoring output is directly linked to Harden’s great play. Harden is fantastic at backing down defenders in the pick-and-roll, making them rather overcommit on himself to get burned on a quick pass to Zubac or choose to give him a free floater in the mid-range.

All in all, with the layout of both rosters and specific matchups, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see Zubac drop 13.5 points or more.

Disclaimer: Odds are accurate at the time of posting and subject to change. Please verify the latest odds on our platform before betting.

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