| Moneyline Pick | Atlético to Win (+179) |
| Player Prop | Julián Alvarez to Score (+260) |
| Same Game Parlay | Atlético to Win + Julián Alvarez to Score + Under 2.5 Goals (+1000) |
| Check Live Odds | |
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Main Match Info
- Date and Time: Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano
- Location: Madrid, Spain
- Last H2H match: Arsenal 4-0 Atlético Madrid (2025/26 Champions League, October 2025)
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Moneyline Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Atlético to Win
- Odds: +179 (Tonybet)
After eliminating Barcelona in the Champions League (3-2), Atlético received a major boost. At home, the Rojiblancos have recorded 14 wins, one draw, and two losses in La Liga, scoring 38 goals and conceding 16, alongside 34.78 xG and only 15.47 xGA.
Arsenal are fighting in a tight Premier League title race and come into this fixture with fresh injury concerns following the Newcastle match, including Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze. Atleti, meanwhile, have little to play for domestically, and at home, we expect them to claim a victory in the first leg.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Player Prop
- Prop Bet: Julián Alvarez to Score
- Odds: +260 (Tonybet)
Julián Alvarez leads the club with nine goals in the Champions League. The Argentine forward has recorded 39 shots this season and has scored in three of his last four UCL appearances, while also taking penalties and free kicks.
Arsenal are likely to control territory, but that can leave space behind their full-backs and centre-backs when Atlético break forward. Alvarez is dangerous in those moments because he attacks quickly and shoots early.
In La Liga, Alvarez has recorded eight goals and four assists in 1,902 minutes. Given his form in the Champions League, he is a strong candidate to score anytime.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Same Game Parlay
- SGP: Atlético to Win + Julián Alvarez to Score + Under 2.5 Goals
- Odds: +1000 (Tonybet)
Atlético to Win: Atlético are now fully focused on the Champions League. They’ve rotated well in La Liga, while Arsenal are coming off a difficult match against Newcastle. Buoyed by eliminating Barcelona, Diego Simeone’s men should carry the momentum and come out on top in this clash.
Julián Alvarez to Score: Alvarez leads the Rojiblancos with nine goals in the tournament. He also takes penalties and free kicks, which increases his scoring chances.
Under 2.5 Goals: In the semi-finals, both clubs are likely to be cautious. Arsenal’s games against Sporting have highlighted their defensive solidity. As a result, we expect fewer than three goals.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Team News
Atlético Madrid Team News
Atlético built momentum at the right time by beating Athletic Club 3-2. That result ended their four-game La Liga losing run. They produced 1.91 xG, allowed only 0.57 xGA, held 53.9% possession, and put four of their six shots on target. However, defensive concerns remain, as they’ve conceded seven goals across their last three matches.
Alongside Alvarez, Alexander Sorloth plays a key role in Atlético’s attack, having scored six times in the Champions League. Antoine Griezmann has added four assists and was instrumental in his club’s success against Barcelona.
Pablo Barrios suffered another injury setback and is questionable. José María Giménez, David Hancko, and Ademola Lookman are also sidelined.
Arsenal Team News
Arsenal beat Newcastle 1-0, but their performance was not dominant. They produced only 0.64 xG, allowed 0.91 xGA, held 45.3% possession, and took 11 shots, including four on target. The team have been criticised for their recent display, especially in attack.
Gabriel Martinelli leads the Gunners in the Champions League with six goals. Declan Rice ranks among the Premier League leaders in big chances created with 14. William Saliba and Gabriel have anchored the league’s best defence, with Arsenal conceding just 26 goals in 34 matches.
Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze both came off against Newcastle with muscular issues. Mikel Merino and Jurriën Timber are also expected to miss the game.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal: Where to Watch (Canada)
- DAZN
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