Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction & Odds: Moneyline, Prop & Total Goals (Nov 4)
Calendar icon Published 04 Nov 10:42

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction & Odds: Moneyline, Prop & Total Goals (Nov 4)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickBuffalo Sabres (-129)
Player PropTage Thompson 1+ Goals (+106)
Total GoalsOver 6.5 Goals (+108)
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Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Main Game Info

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Moneyline Prediction

The Sabres are coming off their third consecutive win. They beat the Los Angeles Kings 3-2 on Saturday after previously defeating the Anaheim Ducks 7-6 and the San Jose Sharks 2-0. Buffalo has gone 5-2-3 over its last 10 games and has lost in regulation just once in its last nine.

The Senators, meanwhile, have been slumping and have lost three of their last four outings, including a 6-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. Ottawa’s 4-5-1 record over its last 10 games isn’t much different from Buffalo’s, but the defensive struggles are a concern.

The Senators are in the middle of a road trip that began on October 27, so fatigue could become a factor. Their recent form isn’t exactly encouraging, particularly on the defensive end. With the Sabres riding a three-game winning streak, they look well positioned to exploit an Ottawa defence that has leaked goals throughout the road trip.

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Projected Starting Goalies

The Senators are expected to start Samuel Ersson because of starter Linus Ullmark’s lower-body injury, while the Sabres could start Colten Ellis following the recent rotation in Buffalo’s crease.

Neither goaltender is likely to be a game-changing presence, although the overall numbers favour Buffalo. The advantage would shift further towards the Sabres if Ottawa starts its projected backup, Jonas Johansson (4.60 GAA, .848 save percentage).

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Player Prop

Thompson has been scorching hot lately, scoring twice in Saturday’s win over the Kings after recording a hat trick and two assists against the Anaheim Ducks on October 29. The 29-year-old has scored 10 goals in 14 appearances and is averaging more than a point per game, with 17 points so far.

Beyond his scoring ability, Thompson also has the shot volume and offensive role to clear the line. He’s averaging 4.5 shots on goal per game and plays on the top line and the first power-play unit, while logging a career-high 19:26 TOI/G.

With the Senators ranking 20th in the league in xGA (47.93) and 23rd in penalty killing (72.9%), Thompson has a good opportunity to exploit Ottawa’s defensive weaknesses if he maintains his season-long production.

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Total Goals Prediction

The Sabres rank 18th in goals scored per game this season, averaging 3.07, while the Senators are slightly ahead in 17th place at 3.13. Both teams have also struggled defensively, with Buffalo ranking 24th at 3.43 goals allowed per game and Ottawa sitting 17th at 3.19.

Games involving Ottawa and Buffalo both average over 6.0 total goals this season, and the expected use of backup netminders at both ends could further support the over. I’m expecting an open game with plenty of scoring opportunities and neither goaltender likely to steal the show.

Recent form also supports this pick. Four of the Senators’ last six outings have gone over 6.5 goals, and six of the Sabres’ last nine have also cleared the line.

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Team News and Injury Report

Ottawa Senators Team News and Injury Report

The Senators will be without starting goaltender Linus Ullmark, meaning Samuel Ersson has had to take on a larger workload than expected. They’re also without two top-six forwards, William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky. As a result, Philip Tomasino and Nick Cousins should see increased roles.

This is the last game of Ottawa’s five-game road trip, during which the team has gone 1-2-1. The Senators have had two days off since Sunday’s loss to the Anaheim Ducks.

Buffalo Sabres Team News and Injury Report

The Sabres remain without backup goaltender Alex Lyon and middle-six forward Justin Danforth, both of whom are dealing with upper-body injuries. However, they are the only players on Buffalo’s injured list who would play significant roles. The team should get a boost from the expected return of centre Jiri Kulich (concussion) on Wednesday.

This clash opens a four-game homestand for the Sabres. They’ve had three days of rest since Saturday’s win.

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Projected Lines and Power Play Units

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres: Where to Watch (Canada)

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