| Moneyline Pick | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Player Prop | Nikita Kucherov over 0.5 goals |
| Same Game Parlay | Lightning -1.5 + Auston Matthews over 0.5 points + Nikita Kucherov over 0.5 points |
| Check Live Odds | |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Main Match Info
- Date and Time: Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 7 PM EST
- Arena: Benchmark International Arena
- Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
- Last match: Tampa Bay Lightning 0:2 Toronto Maple Leafs (December 8, 2025, 2025-26 NHL regular season)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning entered the Olympic break as one of the hottest teams in the NHL, and nothing suggests they won’t be able to continue on that trajectory as the season resumes on Wednesday.
They went into the break on the heels of a five-game winning run and having won all but one of their last nine contests, with the lone defeat coming against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The impressive play of their forwards, mainly Nikita Kucherov, has carried Tampa Bay over that hot stretch.
Proud of our Olympians ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/XUmsX4foTt
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) February 23, 2026
The Maple Leafs won’t be an easy opponent, however, as they were finding their stride just before the break with three wins in a row, including a victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Toronto also have an edge in terms of personnel since they’re reportedly healthier than the Lightning.
That said, the U.S. side simply have the better roster on both ends of the ice, with difference-makers like Kucherov making things easier for them.
Girgy’s back in town 👋 pic.twitter.com/Xf6qfWBnQU
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) February 22, 2026
Tampa Bay, the second-best team in the league in both goals scored (3.55) and allowed (2.51) per game this season, should find a way to cruise to victory against the sixth-worst defence in the NHL (3.39 goals allowed per game).
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop
- Prop Bet: Nikita Kucherov over 0.5 goals
The main reason why the Lightning have been so good of late has been the play of Kucherov, who should find a way to make an impact once again. The star playmaker has three goals and 10 assists over his last five appearances, and he should pick things up right where he left off and get on the scoresheet.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Same Game Parlay
- SGP: Lightning -1.5 + Auston Matthews over 0.5 points + Nikita Kucherov over 0.5 points
The Lightning have been excellent defensively and have enough quality to dismantle the Maple Leafs on both ends of the ice, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them cover the -1.5 puck line. Tampa Bay have won by multiple goals in five of their last eight wins, with the three exceptions being games that were taken into overtime.
We’re pairing that puck line with two of the best players on the ice leaving their mark on the scoresheet.
Auston Matthews says his gold medal will go to his family, with specifically his dad saying he’s been with him through thick and thin since he was young and even got emotional seeing him cry after the US won the gold on Sunday: 🥹
“It’s for family, my dad, he’s been my number… pic.twitter.com/LBZjrZgoCH
— Leafslatest (@Leafslatest) February 23, 2026
Kucherov should be heavily involved on offence for the Bolts. In addition to 13 points in their last five outings, he’s also posted 24 points amid an impressive 10-game point streak.
Last but not least, we have Auston Matthews, who registered six points in the Maple Leafs’ last five encounters before the Olympic break and played at a high level for Team USA. He should carry Toronto’s offence once again.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Team News
Tampa Bay Lightning Team News
The Lightning have two game-time decisions, with Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) and Victor Hedman (lower body) listed as day-to-day.
A decision on their status should be made at some point on Tuesday or, in a worst-case scenario, early Wednesday. The upcoming clash will come too soon for Charle-Edouard D’Astous (lower body) as well.
Updated reminder: Jake Guentzel is a Bolt and an Olympic gold medalist 🥇 pic.twitter.com/DPF9hhoG4m
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) February 22, 2026
Emil Lilleberg (undisclosed), Nick Paul (undisclosed), and Max Crozier (abdomen) are all sidelined and won’t be an option for the Lightning. The biggest question is whether Brayden Point (lower body) will be able to suit up.
He hasn’t featured for Tampa Bay since Jan. 12, and it’s uncertain whether he’ll recover in time for this matchup. Point has 30 points (G11, A19) in 37 appearances in 2025-26.
Toronto Maple Leafs Team News
The Maple Leafs will be close to full strength. The lone doubt lies in whether Dakota Joshua, who’s dealing with an upper-body injury, will be available. Joshua hasn’t played for Toronto since Dec. 28, however, and he wasn’t an impact player when on the ice, so his potential absence won’t have a big impact on the team’s overall strength.
The only confirmed absence is Chris Tanev, but it was known the veteran defenceman wouldn’t be available right after the Olympic break. Tanev is expected to return to the ice at some point in early March.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Where to Watch (Canada)
- Watch on Sportsnet, TVAS
- Stream on Sportsnet+, TVAS+
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