Italy vs Canada Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 16)
Calendar icon Updated 14 May 14:21

Italy vs Canada Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (May 16)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickCanada
Player PropMacklin Celebrini over 1.5 points
Same Game ParlayCanada -1.5 + Over 4.5 goals + Robert Thomas over 0.5 assists
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Italy vs Canada Main Match Info

Italy vs Canada Moneyline Prediction

Canada will begin their 2026 Ice Hockey World Championship with one objective in mind – reclaiming the title after Team USA won the most recent edition of the event.

The Canucks enter the competition as overwhelming favourites after assembling a roster loaded with NHL-level talent, blending elite young players with proven veterans.

The same can’t be said about Italy. The Azzurri don’t have a single player with NHL experience on their World Championship roster, with most of their squad currently playing in Switzerland, Germany, France, or Italy. As a result, they’re probably not used to dealing with the talent of NHLers, making them massive underdogs here.

Canada will still need to decide who starts between the posts in the tournament opener.

Cam Talbot of the Detroit Red Wings and Jet Greaves of the Columbus Blue Jackets are expected to battle for the crease, while prospect Jack Ivankovic should be the third-stringer. Italy will be without Damian Clara, who remains involved in the 2026 NHL Playoffs with the Anaheim Ducks, meaning Davide Fadani should get the nod.

Canada are not only expected to win here, but they should be able to do so comfortably. If they want to make a statement in their tournament opener, an Italy squad that lacks top-level international experience is the perfect opponent.

Italy vs Canada Player Prop

All signs point to Macklin Celebrini playing a major role for Canada – not only in the tournament opener but throughout the international campaign.

The 19-year-old is expected to handle a top-six role after an impressive season with the San Jose Sharks. He tallied 115 points (45 goals, 70 assists) in 82 appearances during the 2025-26 NHL regular season.

Whether Celebrini skates on the first or second line, he should be heavily involved on offence as arguably the most talented player in the entire tournament. In a game Canada are expected to dominate from start to finish, he could very well deliver a multi-point performance.

Italy vs Canada Same Game Parlay

Our three-leg parlay leans toward a high-scoring affair dominated by Canada. As a result, the team should not only come away with the win, but they’re also in a strong position to cover the -1.5 puck line comfortably.

Given the clear gap in talent between these sides, it would be a major surprise if Canada failed to open this tournament with a multi-goal win.

We’re also backing the over on goals, although the line of 4.5 remains relatively conservative. Canada could realistically threaten that number on their own, considering the offensive firepower throughout their lineup.

The last time the Canucks faced Italy in an international tournament, they scored six goals in a 6-1 victory.

Lastly, Robert Thomas stands out as a strong candidate to record an assist for Canada in what figures to be a dominant win, as he’s coming off a 64-point regular season with the St. Louis Blues.

This leg carries slightly more risk than the others simply because the team’s line combinations remain uncertain, but if Thomas lands in a top-six role, he should be heavily involved on offence.

Italy vs Canada Team News

Italy Team News

Davide Fadani is expected to get the nod between the pipes for Italy. They’ve not reported any injury concerns for this season opener, but some players to watch are Luca Zanatta, Alex Trivellato, Cristiano DiGiacinto, Luca Frigo, and Ivan Deluca. DiGiacinto, in particular, is expected to be one of the Azzurri‘s key offensive weapons.

Canada Team News

Canada have an absolutely loaded squad with a mix of youth and experience, best exemplified by the fact that both Celebrini (19 years old) and Sidney Crosby (38) are on the roster.

With elite skill across all four lines and the defensive pairings, where Evan Bouchard stands out, Canada undoubtedly have one of the best – if not the best – rosters at the 2026 IIHF World Championship.

Italy vs Canada: Where to Watch (Canada)

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