Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Jan 13)
Calendar icon Updated 13 Jan 09:12

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Jan 13)

Giorgi Natsvlishvili
Moneyline Pick Columbus Blue Jackets
Player Prop Kirill Marchenko Anytime Point 
Same Game Parlay Columbus Blue Jackets ML + Over 5.5 Total Goals + Kirill Marchenko Anytime Point 
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Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Main Match Info 

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Moneyline Prediction 

Judging from the last 8-10 outings, Columbus have quietly been the stronger team in five-on-five play, hovering close to .500. They also have a positive expected-goal differential and about 52-53% xGF at even strength. Generally, their forecheck pressure and transition game have improved, resulting in more sustained zone time and higher-quality shots. 

Considering Calgary’s recent results, we’re less convinced that they’ll emerge victorious in this matchup. The Flames have an xGF of 48%, which is slightly lower than their average over their last eight encounters. The squad struggle with a negative goal differential and declining possession numbers; thus far, they’ve failed to maintain any level of consistency. 

Special-teams momentum favours Columbus, as they’ve stabilised their play, whereas Calgary’s penalty kill has been trending downward in recent outings. 

If Elvis Merzlikins starts, the Blue Jackets will have a slight edge at home. He has a decent save percentage that can come in handy in high-danger situations. On the other hand, Jacob Markstrom has faced heavy workloads and has been less consistent. 

Even though Calgary still command respect in the market due to their name value and preseason expectations, Columbus bank on performance, not hype. Projection models put the Blue Jackets closer to a 55-58% win probability, but the market odds are slightly lower at 50-52%. This margin is ideal for a moneyline pick. 

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Player Prop

Marchenko is Columbus’s most efficient scorer at five-on-five and remains a fixture on the top power-play unit. In recent outings, he’s generated shots from high-danger areas. 

This matchup is favourable for him to record a point, especially from the left circle, his preferred shooting area. Calgary’s penalty kill has struggled against teams with strong puck movement, which further boosts Marchenko’s anytime point case. 

Typically, there is no reduction in his usage; it is the same PP1 deployment, top-line even-strength role with a stable 18+ minutes TOI. The market prices this player prop at -115 to -120, whereas projections place it at -140. In a nutshell, this creates value for any bettor who is seeking a decent player prop. 

If the Blue Jackets control the pace of the game and draw penalties, Marchenko benefits more. A 3-2 or 4-2 Columbus win is likely. 

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Same Game Parlay 

The SGP assumes that the meeting turns in favour of Columbus. It’s built on them pushing the pace and Calgary being forced into special-teams play. Blue Jackets ML anchors the SGP due to their stronger recent possession metrics and favourable PP vs PK matchup. 

Marchenko’s point prop fits with a Columbus win. His production is highly correlated with their victories, especially when the power play converts. Simply put, ML + Marchenko Point shows strong correlation, while data also support the ML + Over, as Columbus wins come in multi-goal games most of the time. 

We avoid single-goal scorer props due to variance. The structure of the SGP is consistent, supported by clear correlation, and two of its legs are generally low-risk. 

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames Team News 

Columbus Blue Jackets Team News 

In this matchup, we may not see Brendan Smith, which would reduce depth but not top-pair impact. However, key players such as Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, and Johnny Gaudreau are consistently producing good results. The team are well-rested with no major fatigue issues, and they’ve also shown improvement in terms of puck movement and defensive zone exits. It is easy to say that their recent losses are more due to bad finishing than poor play. 

Calgary Flames Team News 

There are no key Calgary players expected to miss this matchup. Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri will be available. However, their inconsistency doesn’t guarantee a strong performance in this clash. Due to recent travels and moderate fatigue, the Flames might not play their best game against a well-rested opponent. Their possession has been declining over their last three outings. Their weakness lies in their defensive structure and inconsistent special-teams play. 

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Calgary Flames: Where to Watch

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