We have a reduced Premier League schedule this week with just the five games spread across the weekend. That’s okay though, as there’s still plenty of marquee matches with both Manchester teams, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Spurs all in action. Let’s dive into the best bets for Matchweek 21!
Burnley vs. Luton (Friday, January 12)
Friday serves up a genuinely fascinating game between Burnley and Luton at Turf Moor. The two teams are both in the relegation zone having been promoted from the Championship last season, but both are looking likely to return there.
It’s hard to pick a winner here, but I do expect both teams to get on the scoresheet. Burnley and Luton have let in a combined 78 goals in 39 games and are both weak defensively. Burnley have conceded in all but one home game, and that was against an awful Sheffield United team. Luton, meanwhile, have found their goalscoring feet on the road recently, scoring in five of their past six games, with a total of nine goals.
Pick: Both teams to score (-125)
Chelsea vs. Fulham (Saturday, January 13)
Death, taxes, and Joao Palhinha getting booked. The Portuguese midfielder has been exceptional since joining Fulham, which saw him painfully close to a move to Bayern Munich in the summer. There’s talk he could depart West London in this transfer window too.
He’s a tough tackler in the middle of the park and not afraid to get stuck into challenges. This is a West London Derby against a superior Chelsea team so you can expect him to be hugely important once again. In 17 Premier League games this season, he’s picked up eight bookings. Dealing with the likes of Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling will cause him problems and I expect Palhinha to give up some fouls resulting in a card.
Pick: Joao Palhinha to be carded (+130)
Newcastle vs. Manchester City (Saturday, January 13)
Newcastle have really struggled at times this season and Eddie Howe is now under serious pressure for the first time since taking charge at St James’ Park. They now welcome the Premier League champions to town and the timing couldn’t be worse. Newcastle have lost five of their past six in the Premier League and have conceded seven goals in their last two league games.
City, meanwhile, have scored at least two goals in their last four games in the Premier League. Their total of 45 goals in 19 games is the highest in the Premier League and they’ll do enough to win this game and score past a Newcastle backline who are playing at a far lower standard than last season. However, I do think the home side will score. After all, this City team have averaged more than one goal conceded per game in the league this season and have let in a goal in eight of their last nine outings.
Pick: Both teams to score and Man City to win (+185)
Everton vs. Aston Villa (Sunday, January 14)
After a slow start to the season Everton turned things around and now, despite a 10-point deduction, will comfortably stay in the Premier League. They’re arguably the most improved team in the EPL, with their only competition being from Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, who are now firmly in the title race.
Villa came into this weekend second in the Premier League table and just three points off top spot. That’s bad news for an Everton team who have lost their last three matches and conceded two or more goals in each of those defeats. However, we have seen Everton score at least one goal in six of their last seven league games and they should manage to bag another in front of their home crowd at Goodison Park.
Pick: Both teams to score and Aston Villa to win (+320)
Manchester United vs. Spurs (Sunday, January 14)
This is a tough game to pick a winner on. As bad as Man Utd have been this season they still have some good players and Spurs just aren’t quite as good without Son Heung-Min, who is at the Asian Cup with South Korea. The one thing I can be certain of is scoring thanks to Spurs’ attacking play and both teams giving up nearly 1.5 goals per game.
With short prices on total goals and the both teams to score market, the best value is betting on the second half to have the most goals. In the first half of games this season we’ve seen Man Utd score just six goals and let in 12, more than doubling the goals scored in the second half to 16 and giving up 15. There have also been a total of 30 goals in the first half of Spurs’ games this season, which increases to 41 in the second 45 minutes. With that in mind, we’ll back the second half of this encounter to see the most goals.
Pick: Best score in second half (-105)
