Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 15)
Calendar icon Updated 15 Dec 06:03

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 15)

Alexander Yaremenko Alexander Yaremenko
Moneyline PickDenver Nuggets
Player PropNikola Jokić Over 52.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)
Same Game Parlay (Bet Builder)Nuggets Win + Jokić Over 29.5 Points + Total Points Over 233.5
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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Main Match Info

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Moneyline Prediction

Despite a narrow spread and the Rockets’ impressive season record (16-6), the Nuggets (18-6) at home, even with their recent home-court struggles, are the preferred side here.

The Nuggets’ offense revolves around the exceptional playmaking of Nikola Jokić, who attracts double-teams and excels at finding cutters and open shooters.

The Rockets respond with Alperen Şengün, who is an excellent offensive player and playmaker. However, he is a less traditional and slightly less mobile defender. While Şengün has a solid defensive rating, containing Jokić presents a much greater challenge.

Denver’s key will be in transition defence and forcing turnovers, where Houston is weaker.

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Player Prop

The Houston Rockets are a strong rebounding team (1st in the NBA), which often requires Nikola Jokić to commit to the glass and play a full, engaged game. More importantly, Jokić is the league’s leader in both rebounds and assists, averaging a stunning 52.7 PRA this season. Against the Rockets in November, he put up 53 PRA. 

When facing another quality frontcourt player like Alperen Şengün, Jokić is motivated to dominate all three categories as the key to Denver’s victory.

Jokić is consistently producing at an elite level, making high production the expectation, not a hot streak. He has cleared 50 PRA in three of his last five games, including a phenomenal 62 PRA outing against the Mavericks. His season average is 52.7 PRA, meaning the current line is set exactly at his proven strength.

Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets Same Game Parlay

We predict a high-scoring, competitive, and ultimately close game where the Nuggets secure a tight victory on the back of the altitude and their superior clutch-time experience. This story fits perfectly into all three legs.

The safest leg is the Nuggets Moneyline. The combination of the altitude advantage and the presence of Jokić in a tight home game provides the necessary foundation for the parlay.

The Jokić Over 29.5 Points is the ‘odds booster’. His season average sits right at this number, but his recent performance and the favourable matchup dynamics suggest the Over is a strong play. 

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Team News

Denver Nuggets Team News

The Nuggets are currently dealing with some key rotational absences. Christian Braun (Left Ankle Sprain) and Aaron Gordon (Right Hamstring Strain) are both OUT, with Julian Strawther (Back) listed as Questionable. 

The absence of Gordon is particularly impactful, as his size and defensive versatility are crucial, especially when tasked with guarding players like Kevin Durant.

As a result, Michael Porter Jr. and Cameron Johnson will need to step up defensively, and rookie Peyton Watson is expected to take on more defensive assignments against Durant, a role he handled well in their previous head-to-head meeting. 

Despite the injuries, Nikola Jokić is continuing his MVP-calibre season, averaging a stunning near-triple-double of 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.9 assists. 

Furthermore, Jamal Murray, the star Canadian point guard, is in great shape, posting 24.4 PPG and 6.9 APG, with a fantastic 44.2 % from beyond the arc. His ability to score efficiently is what keeps their offence, which is their strength and the most efficient in the league (1st in Offensive Rating), so strong. 

Houston Rockets Team News

The Rockets are severely impacted by injuries heading into this matchup. 

Key players out include Fred VanVleet, who is out for the season due to an ACL repair, a monumental loss for their guard rotation and playmaking. Dorian Finney-Smith (Left Ankle Surgery) is also injured. 

Additionally, key defensive stopper Tari Eason is Questionable with a Right Oblique Strain. 

The absence of VanVleet has shifted the ball-handling and primary playmaking duties almost entirely to Alperen Şengün and second-year guard Amen Thompson. 

While this makes the team more predictable, it has also unlocked Şengün’s immense passing skills. Finney-Smith and Eason’s absence particularly hurts their perimeter defence and rebounding against a physical team like Denver. 

Despite these issues, the team remains highly competitive. The acquisition of Kevin Durant is transformative, as he leads the team with 24.8 PPG, and the rise of Alperen Şengün, who is averaging 23.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, into an All-NBA-calibre player is the main story. 

Rookie Reed Sheppard is also providing a crucial scoring punch off the bench. 

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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