Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 23)
Calendar icon Published 22 Dec 14:09

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Prediction: Moneyline, Props & SGP (Dec 23)

Alexander Yaremenko Alexander Yaremenko
Moneyline PickToronto Raptors
Player PropScottie Barnes Over 15.5 Points
Same Game Parlay (Bet Builder)Raptors +5.5 + Scottie Barnes 15+ Points + Total Under 239.5
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Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Main Match Info

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Moneyline Prediction

The Miami Heat currently play at one of the fastest paces in the league, ranking in the top five for points per encounter. 

However, the Raptors have developed a “no-middle” defensive scheme that excels at slowing down transition-heavy teams. 

By forcing Miami into half-court sets, Toronto can mitigate the impact of their snipers like Norman Powell. In their last meeting on December 15, the Canadian side held the Heat to just 96 points, a season low, showing they have the defensive blueprint to neutralize this high-powered offence.

When the game gets tight in the final minutes, it comes down to the closer. While Bam Adebayo is a force, the Raptors have the reigning star power of Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. 

Barnes has shown a remarkable ability to take over in clutch moments, using his size to bully smaller guards or his vision to find open teammates when double-teamed.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Player Prop

Scottie Barnes is having a great campaign, and this matchup against Miami’s interior defence is particularly favourable. With Nikola Jovic out for the Heat, their frontline is weaker than usual. While Bam Adebayo is a world-class defender, he can’t be everywhere at once.

Barnes is averaging 19.3 points this season, and in the last meeting against Miami, he was a force in the paint. 

With the Heat likely focusing their primary defensive resources on Brandon Ingram, Barnes will find himself in plenty of one-on-one situations where he can use his size and strength to clear this total by the middle of the fourth quarter.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Same Game Parlay

Raptors +5.5 Spread: Even if the Raptors don’t win outright, they rarely get blown out when Barnes and Ingram are healthy. This handicap provides a solid safety net.

Scottie Barnes 15+ Points: If Toronto are going to keep it close or win, Barnes will probably be their leading contributor.

Total Under 239.5: The primary reason to lean toward the Under is the Raptors’ defensive identity. 

Toronto rank fifth in the league in points allowed (112.2). Their defensive scheme is specifically designed to run shooters off the line and force players into the mid-range. 

While Miami love a track meet, the Raptors have proven they can successfully “muck up” the Heat’s flow. In their meeting just a week ago on December 15, Toronto held their opponents’ high-speed offence to a season-low 96 points. 

Even with Miami’s average being high, the Raptors’ length (Barnes, Ingram, Poeltl) creates a “ceiling” that most teams can’t crack.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Team News

Miami Heat Team News

The Heat are dealing with some roster volatility. Tyler Herro and Nikola Jovic are currently out, which significantly impacts their floor spacing and frontcourt depth. The team have looked to Kel’el Ware to provide more rebounding, while Norman Powell has stepped up as the primary scoring option.

Despite their high PPG average this season, the Heat have struggled with defensive consistency lately, dropping games where their three-point shot isn’t falling. Their main strengths remain Davion Mitchell’s playmaking and Bam Adebayo’s defence, but the lack of bench depth could be an issue if the meeting goes to overtime.

Toronto Raptors Team News

The Raptors will be without RJ Barrett (knee), which affects their transition scoring. However, the team have remained competitive thanks to the elite play of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes. 

Jakob Poeltl is currently listed as day-to-day with a back issue. If he can’t go, expect more minutes for Sandro Mamukelashvili, who has been a productive surprise off the bench.

Toronto’s main strength is their ability to force turnovers and run. Their recent weakness has been allowing leads to slip in the third quarter, which they must address against a disciplined Heat side.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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