Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Sep 30)
Calendar icon Updated 30 Sep 10:55

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Sep 30)

Juan Pablo Aravena Juan Pablo Aravena
Moneyline PickNew York Islanders (+170)
Player PropBo Horvat to score anytime (+143)
Same Game ParlayOver 5.5 goals + William Nylander to record over 2.5 shots + Bo Horvat to record over 2.5 shots
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Main Match Info

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Moneyline Prediction

I’m backing the underdogs because of the strength of their roster and the rest advantage. The Islanders have had plenty of time to prepare for this season opener and are close to full strength from an injury perspective, while the Maple Leafs are opening the 2026-27 regular season on a back-to-back set after a 3-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday.

Toronto looked outmatched against Montreal despite leading in shots 28 to 24, and every time the Canadiens stepped on the gas, they struggled. Playing a back-to-back set to open the season will be particularly demanding for the Maple Leafs; they lost seven of the 13 games they played on the second night of a back-to-back during the 2025-26 season.

The Islanders, meanwhile, posted a W43, L34, OT5 record in the 2025-26 regular season and are expected to be playoff contenders again in 2026-27. They should be confident in their chances not only because they’ll be more rested than their rivals, but also because they’ve won three of their previous four visits to Scotiabank Arena (W3, L1), including the last one on March 17, 2026.

The psychological advantage of recent success, a better season (comparatively) in 2025-26, and the edge in rest since they’re not playing on a back-to-back all point to the Islanders winning.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Player Prop

Bo Horvat led the Islanders in goals during the 2025-26 season with 31, and the veteran centre is expected to play a key role on offence again in 2026-27. With the Maple Leafs potentially starting their backup goalie in this clash, Horvat should get plenty of chances to score. He averaged 3.32 shots on goal per game last season.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Same Game Parlay

I’m backing the over since that line has hit in two of the three head-to-head meetings between these two franchises last season. With the Maple Leafs tired and potentially playing their backup goaltender, and both teams averaging over 2.8 goals allowed per game in 2025-26, this supports the over 5.5-goal angle.

I’m also backing two of the deadliest forwards on the ice to be heavily involved. Horvat averaged 3.32 shots per game in 2025-26 and recorded over 2.5 shots in 41 different appearances. Nylander, on the other hand, scored both of Toronto’s goals in the season-opening loss against the Canadiens on Tuesday and should ride a hot hand entering this contest.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Team News 

The Maple Leafs are playing the second game of a back-to-back set after Opening Night on Tuesday, so they’re likely to make a change between the posts. That means Sergei Bobrovsky, who allowed three goals in Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to the Canadiens, could be replaced by Anthony Stolarz, who was the No. 2 goalie in that game.

In terms of injuries and potential absences, they’ll be missing players on both ends of the ice. The list includes forwards Dakota Joshua (abdomen) and Max Domi (back), as well as blueliners Cade Webber (elbow) and William Villeneuve (knee), with all four not expected back until mid-to-late October at the earliest. Elvis Merzlikins is out with a shoulder injury and is set to miss four to six months.

New York Islanders Team News

The Islanders will be close to full strength for their 2026-27 regular-season opener, and their lone absence will be Mathew Barzal, who’s dealing with a knee injury. Although the star forward is expected to return in early October, this game comes too soon for him. Barzal’s absence removes a key offensive weapon from the Isles’ roster, as he notched 19 goals and 53 assists in the 2025-26 regular season.

The Islanders are expected to start Ilya Sorokin between the pipes, as he was the first goalie off the ice during Tuesday’s morning skate. The 31-year-old backstop had a strong season in 2025-26, posting a 29-24-2 record, a 2.68 GAA, a .906 save percentage, and seven shutouts across 55 regular-season outings.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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