Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Feb 5)
Calendar icon Updated 03 Feb 16:50

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction, Odds & SGP Picks (Feb 5)

Kai Edvard Iliev Kai Edvard Iliev
Moneyline PickAtlético de Madrid (+112)
Player PropMarcos Llorente to score (+1100)
Same Game ParlayAtlético de Madrid Win + Marcos Llorente to score + Under 2.5 goals (+3300)
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Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Main Match Info

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Moneyline Prediction

Despite being slight underdogs at +112, Atlético are the stronger side based on form and head-to-head record, making these odds valuable. The game will be impacted by injuries, with at least seven Real Betis players missing, including Isco and Rodrigo Riquelme. Atlético de Madrid miss Alexander Sørloth, the team’s top goalscorer with seven goals. 

Los Rojiblancos are undefeated in six La Liga games with the best defensive record, conceding only 24.4 xG (the second-best record after Barcelona) and registering ten clean sheets. Atlético de Madrid have only conceded one goal in their last five La Liga matches, while scoring eight goals.

Simeone’s side will focus on allowing Real Betis to attack and capitalize on their mistakes, as their attack relies on dribblers to progress in the penalty box.

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Player Prop

Marcos Llorente is the standout prop with 0.42 big chances created per ninety minutes, using his pace to start counter-attacks after dispossessing Abde on the right flank. At an average age of 32.5 years, Betis’ defenders often struggle to keep up with quicker attacks due to slow recovery runs.

Betis lack a dominant full-back to mark Llorente, and Atlético’s midfield control will give him more shooting opportunities in the attacking half. He has registered 2.58 touches in the opposition box per ninety minutes, leading to high-quality shots with 0.10 xG/90

Atletico de Madrid are without their starting strikers due to injuries. Julian Álvarez has been benched for poor performances, having failed to score in the last two months.

At +1100, the market implies only 8.3% chance, but given Llorente’s advanced positioning, Atlético’s injury situation forcing him into attacking roles, and three assists showing offensive involvement, his actual probability is closer to 12-15%, making this significantly underpriced.

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Same Game Parlay

With so many forwards missing, Atletico de Madrid’s defensive 4-4-1-1 formation will be challenging for Real Betis to break open. Diego Simeone’s plan will clog central channels with midfielders, opting for a reactive approach.

Atlético average 1.8 goals per match while allowing 0.77. Betis score 1.6 per match at home, but against Atlético’s defensive setup, combined xG trends suggest 1-2 total goals, well under the 2.5 threshold.

Marcos Llorente will be key in counter-attacks, as Betis focus on high-volume dribbling to advance in the final third, allowing Llorente to take advantage of their mistakes.

His three assists in eight La Liga matches highlight his attacking threat, and Betis’ back-to-back losses to Atlético suggest they struggle to contain such runs.

Without their starting strikers, Atlético de Madrid will need Llorente to step up in attack, as the team failed to score against Levante (0-0) last weekend. His involvement in the final third will make the difference between a draw and a tight 1-0 victory. 

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid Team news

Real Betis Team News 

Manuel Pellegrini has set up his Real Betis with a 4-2-3-1 formation, placing Abde and Antony (currently injured) on the wings as the leaders of the attack, with Abde ranking in the top 5% in xG/90 in La Liga (0.42). 

The two dribblers often found Juan Hernández in the box, who found it easy to create chances as the striker in the penalty box (1.47/90). 

Manuel Pellegrini’s side has scored 36 goals, making them the fifth-best attack in La Liga. However, defensive issues persist due to an aging backline—the youngest defender is 29 years old (Aitor Ruibal), while centre-back Bartra is 35. Consequently, the defence often struggles against younger and quicker attackers. 

Rodrigo Riquelme, Juan Hernández, Sofyan Amrabat, Isco, Giovani Lo Celso, Junior Firpo, Hector Bellerin, and Antony will be sidelined due to injuries.

Atlético de Madrid Team News

Atlético de Madrid conceded the fewest goals in La Liga (17), but paid the price for it: they have registered 20 xG less than second-placed Real Madrid (52).

Los Rojiblancos struggled to create chances against Levante last weekend (0.86 xG), with Sørloth’s injury forcing Diego Simeone to sub on Julian Álvarez in the first half. With Thiago Almada remaining as the only playmaker, Atlético de Madrid lacked the depth on the wings to dismantle Levante’s block. 

Without a reliable striker, Simeone has preferred to rely on a reactive set-up, where his team punishes their opponents’ mistakes. This is evidenced by Atlético de Madrid’s 27.7 accurate long balls by the match, signalling a vertical approach in counter-attacks.

Alexander Sørloth, Antoine Griezmann, and Pablo Barrios are sidelined due to injuries.

Real Betis vs Atlético de Madrid: Where to Watch (Canada) 

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