The long-awaited return of UFC megastar Conor McGregor is almost upon fans as the Irish MMA star will clash with Michael Chandler at UFC 303. Teasers from last autumn’s The Ultimate Fighter show, in which McGregor was coaching opposite Chandler, fired up the speculation that ‘Notorious’ would be making his way back into the ring.
A spine-tingling promotional video launched by the UFC is a small sample of the hype surrounding the fight, which was announced earlier this year, and will take place on 29th June in Las Vegas. Despite it not being a championship bout, this is lining up to be one of the biggest UFC nights of the year so far. Gate records have been broken, and ticket prices have soared.
McGregor vs Chandler will be part of International Fight Week, and after such a long road back to the Octagon, all eyes will be on McGregor to see if he makes a first successful step back onto the ladder.
Can Conor deliver on his comeback?
The last time Conor McGregor was in the Octagon, things came to an unfortunate end for him. At UFC 264 in the summer of 2021, he suffered a freak accident in the closing seconds of the first round against Dustin Poirier, which stopped the fight. McGregor rolled his ankle when stepping back at the end of the round, breaking his lower tibia in what was the final act of their trilogy.
A three-year absence is a long time away from the sport’s tough competitive action and will inevitably lead to rustiness. The fight-winner odds on McGregor vs Chandler show an even contest, with very narrow margins between the two fighters. Part of the reason for this is that his opponent Chandler has not been active recently either, having not fought for two years. This adds elements of the unknown about what may unfold.
It is perhaps not just the absence that is in question in this one about the chances of ‘Notorious’ walking away with the win. Including the aforementioned injury against Poirier, McGregor has lost three of his last four fights and four of his last seven. This was enough of a decline to get pundits talking about whether he was winding towards the end of his career.
There is also a lot of pressure riding on this fight for McGregor. Even with his pull at the box office, it would be hard to secure top fights if he is defeated by Chandler. He’d certainly be left a long way from any title shot. What makes this fight even more interesting is that it is being fought up at welterweight. The reason? Chandler called out McGregor for his return, and wanted to face him at his “biggest and baddest”.
Can Chandler outfox McGregor?
Michael Chandler hasn’t fought since losing to Dustin Poirier to a rear-naked choke in November 2022. So, he has also been out of top action for a while, and the loss left him on a 23-8-0 career MMA record. Just like ‘Notorious’, Chandler has lost three of his last four fights, including big bouts against Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira, which hints at significant struggles against top fighters.
The American has less striking accuracy than McGregor, and he may be the keener of the two to get to the mat, where his grappling skills, especially at the heavier weight, could grind down his opponent. However, it’s getting McGregor down that could be problematic – Chandler has a 38% career takedown accuracy, compared to McGregor’s 55%.
Where Chandler shines is in better defence against takedowns, which may level the field. However, if McGregor is more than prepared to be patiently evasive and rely on his striking, instead of getting into a grappling contest, then Chandler could find it tough to get into the match.
Chandler perhaps isn’t the big attraction that McGregor fans would have wanted to see opposing him on his return, but it’s a fight that makes sense for the American. Taking out one of the most high-profile fighters, albeit one not in his prime, would help him get his own career back on track.
Tough, even fight ahead for both
This is a fascinating bout without question and it’s one that McGregor, who has been on a dedicated comeback trail, can ill afford to lose. Many factors are lining up, such as their absences, their MMA career records, the fighters they have lost to, and the weight class.
There should be a hard fight ahead for both. Both fighters are likely to come out swinging. Expect plenty of that, and importantly, this is only a three-round fight, so there’s going to be no holding back in trying to conserve energy for the latter rounds. This could lead to the contest being settled by a knockout in the Method of Victory market.
Many will point to McGregor’s superior firepower as a potential advantage, and it certainly presents a way to take down Chandler’s defences. He’ll want that significant strike rate to be up around 75% for the fight, the level that fans are used to seeing him operate at when he’s at his best. The southpaw carries a career 49% striking accuracy into the fight and has a crucial 3” reach advantage over his opponent.
Chandler does have power in his swing, but less technical defence ability than McGregor, so he could be walking into trouble there in trying to spar with the Irishman. He’s an accomplished wrestler, but at the same time, he isn’t afraid to stand there and trade blows. Will Chandler be able to fend off McGregor’s likely stronger, more accurate and more clinical blows, though?
Chandler also has good kicking form, something that he has specifically trained for. To what extent will he utilise leg kicks to try to get at the one that McGregor broke? This could have quite a psychological effect on McGregor and how he carries his stance in the fight. Title fight or not, McGregor once again proves that he is one of the biggest draws in UFC.
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