Who will win the French Open?
Calendar icon Updated 03 Jun 04:21

Who will win the French Open?

Lee Jackson

The unique Grand Slam tennis action on the wonderful clay courts of Roland-Garros in Paris is one of the highlights of the season. It’s the second of the year’s four Slams, following on from the Australian Open, with Wimbledon and the US Open to come later in the year.

The challenges of the surface make the French Open something special, and the celebrations around the tournament were taken up a notch this year as a new plaque dedicated to 14-time French Open legend Rafael Nadal was unveiled on Court Philippe-Chatrier.

With the action up and running already in Paris, what will unfold in the men’s and women’s draws?

Head to Tonybet for 2025 French Open coverage!

French Open 2025 dates

The matches in the main draw started on Sunday 25th May, kicking off two weeks of top tennis action, all leading up to the big events of the men’s and women’s finals.

Already gone – some first week casualties

There were some early upsets in the men’s and women’s draws this year, including Taylor Fritz exiting in the first round and Stefanos Tsitsipas being upset by the unseeded Matteo Gigante in the second round.

One of the most consistent clay court players this year, Casper Ruud, crashed out at the same stage, and 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev was dumped out by Britain’s Cameron Norrie.

Naomi Osaka had an early exit from the women’s draw, and last year’s runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, blew three match points against Elina Svitolina in a Round of 16 exit.

French Open Fun Fact: Rafael Nadal retired with a 112-4 record at Roland-Garros, winning all 14 finals he appeared in there.

Carlos Alcaraz – men’s singles favourite

Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz was an early 2.1 front-runner at the head of the pack in the 2025 French Open tennis betting. Alcaraz is the reigning champion, and he went to Paris on the back of a very good clay court swing of the season.

The Spaniard claimed the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo title, fell in the final of Barcelona to Holger Rune, and then bounced straight back to win the ATP Masters 1000 Rome against world number one Jannik Sinner.

Alcaraz grew up playing on clay, and his titles at the biggest clay events in the last couple of years back up his status on the surface. He is brilliant at disguising drop shots and taking advantage of playing against his opponents’ movement on the clay.

French Open Fun Fact: In 2004, Fabrice Santoro and Arnaud Clément played for six hours and 33 minutes, the longest ever match at the French Open.

Can contenders cause an upset?

There are plenty of genuine contenders this year. Jannik Sinner, the current world number one, is one such player and the second favourite to Alcaraz in French Open betting.

Sinner was forced to step away from the game for three months, so he hasn’t had the playing time under his belt that Alcaraz had in the build-up. The 2025 French Open is only Sinner’s third tournament of the year – he won the Australian Open in January and was runner-up to Alcaraz in Rome.

However, the fact that he got to the final of the ATP Masters 1000 Rome was notable after his time away from the game, and he dropped only one set in reaching the final. There will be a question mark over his sharpness and fitness going into the second week of the French Open, but Sinner is a cool, collected elite player, and arguably still the biggest threat to Alcaraz.

Last 10 Men’s French Open champions

Novak Djokovic had a big boost to his form ahead of the French Open when he won his 100th ATP title. He defeated Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz to win the Geneva Open, becoming only the third player to reach that mark in the Open era, joining Jimmy Connors and Roger Federer. Considering that Djokovic hadn’t won on clay this season before Geneva, the run will have done wonders for his confidence in what has been a difficult campaign.

Alexander Zverev lost last year’s French Open Final against Alcaraz, despite holding the lead in the match. The German’s ATP Masters 1000 clay court form was poor this year – he failed to get past the quarter-finals of Monte-Carlo, Madrid or Rome. However, Zverev has reached at least the semi-finals in each of his last four appearances in Paris.

Iga Świątek – women’s singles favourite

All the attention of this year’s women’s draw was on Polish sensation Iga Świątek, who is not only the reigning champion but is also seeking her fourth consecutive title at Roland-Garros, and a fifth win in the last six years. However, at 3.25 odds, Swiatek isn’t the outright favourite for the 2025 French Open.

While usually dominant in the clay swing of the season, things have been a little different for Swiatek this time around, and she has surprisingly not claimed a title on the surface this year. Her uncharacteristic struggles on clay have raised question marks about a potential title defence this year.

Świątek, however, dismantled Emma Raducanu in the second round, leaving her career win percentage at Roland-Garros at around 95% with a 37-2 win/loss record. The French Open brings the best out of her, but she will be feeling more pressure, as highlighted by her gritty fourth round comeback win over Elena Rybakina.

French Open Fun Fact: The USA’s Chris Evert is the all-time leading women’s French Open champion with seven titles.

Sabalenka leads the contenders

Current world number one Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite as she seeks her French Open Grand Slam title breakthrough. The Belarusian won the Madrid Open on clay as part of her build-up to the French Open.

Clay isn’t her best surface, however, and Sabalenka’s best finish at the French Open was a semi-final exit in 2023.

There’s little doubt that she is the powerhouse form player of the year, though, and she has been to at least the quarter-finals in each of her last nine Grand Slam appearances. Sabalenka is running as the 3.0 favourite in the women’s draw.

Last 10 Women’s French Open champions

Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva has shown mettle and class at the tournament so far, and she is aiming to get past the fourth round for the first time. Andreeva’s rise in the last three years has been meteoric, and with her second round win over Ashlyn Krueger, she became the youngest player in almost two decades to earn 20 Grand Slam singles match wins.

6.5 shot Coco Gauff is capable of a title and was a runner-up at Roland-Garros in 2022 to Świątek. She also fell just short of the showcase match last year when she was beaten in the semi-finals. The American is rated second in the world and has had a very strong clay swing, reaching the finals of both Madrid and Rome.

Can Świątek and Djokovic be written off?

There has been so much talk around Iga Świątek and her lack of overall form this year, but as the second favourite to Sabalenka, the Pole is an even more attractive proposition. Her record at Roland-Garros speaks for itself, and the environment always seems to see her kick into a different gear.

She’s still a massive threat, and even though Sabalenka has been this year’s best player on the WTA, Świątek may still rule as the Queen of Roland-Garros. As for an outsider pick, Mirra Andreeva is an astounding young prospect, but China’s Qinwen Zheng has been great on clay and looks fired up to launch an underdog bid.

Zheng has carried over some good clay momentum from her semi-final appearance in Rome recently, where she lost to Coco Gauff in an intensely close match, and is a big dark horse threat from 15.0 odds.

For the men’s draw, it’s hard to look past Carlos Alcaraz. He has the movement and variety of shots that can carry him to a title defence. The Spaniard has become an increasingly methodical machine on the surface and looks the clear pick of the bunch.

In his astonishing career, the French Open has been Novak Djokovic’s weakest Grand Slam. However, besides Alcaraz and Sinner, there’s not the depth on the men’s side as there is on the women’s, so 13.0 contender Djokovic can’t be written off entirely, even on the back of a poor season by his standards.

For all the latest markets from the 2025 French Open, head over to Tonybet, where every single match from the Men’s and Women’s draw has pre-match and in-play betting odds across a huge range of markets, including the Match Outright, Correct Score and Handicaps.

Follow all the latest tennis betting markets at Tonybet!

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