With its new state-of-the-art home at La Défense Arena and a mammoth prize pot of €6,128,940 up for grabs, the 2025 edition of the Rolex Paris Masters has been living up to its lofty billing this week.
The tournament, which started on 25th October, has been a showcase of stellar tennis so far, while the new venue’s massive 16,500-seat centre court should provide a fitting stage for the men’s final on Sunday 2nd November.
This week’s event, which is the final big swing before the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, will have a major impact on the world rankings, and the players involved have looked laser-focused as a consequence.
Jannik Sinner (1.40 with Tonybet) and Carlos Alcaraz (1.53) have been attracting the most interest in the outright market reckoning, though last year’s winner, Alexander Zverev (5.99), will also be lurking with intent.
Below, we take a closer look at the tournament as a whole as well as some of the players likely to be in the final shake-up in Paris this weekend.
Rolex Masters 2025: tournament lowdown
For the first time in over 30 years, the Paris Masters has upped sticks, swapping the intimate Accor Arena for the bigger La Défense Arena.
Why is that significant? Well, alongside introducing the four additional match courts, the enhanced capacity at centre court makes the Rolex Masters the world’s biggest indoor tennis tournament in one fell swoop.
The Greenset surface at La Défense Arena, which is laid over a wooden sub-layer, will also have a different effect on bounce speeds, tilting the scales slightly towards baseline grinders who thrive in extended rallies.
Traditionally, the Masters in Paris has been a haven for underdog winners. Alexander Zverev won it last year, while Holger Rune was champion in 2022, which could provide an inkling into how things might develop in 2025.
Novak Djokovic, winner of a record seven Paris Masters titles, is missing this year due to injury, which could widen avenues for an unfancied name to push for glory again.
Draw deep dive: paths to glory and potential pitfalls
The draw for the Rolex Paris Masters is split into two halves, with the current world number two, Jannik Sinner, in the bottom and chief rival and current number one, Carlos Alcaraz, anchoring the top.
Sinner cut through some bizarre cramping issues to reassert his indoor dominance on Sunday at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, where he defeated Alexander Zverev 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, so his confidence levels this week should be high.
Italian star Sinner, who enjoyed wins in 13 of his last 15 matches ahead of the tournament, won’t face any of the top seeds until the third round, where stiffer tests could lurk.
If results go to form in Paris, then a head-to-head with America’s Ben Shelton (5) could be in the works. Shelton’s big serve could be a potent weapon indoors, though Sinner, who has converted 45% of break point opportunities in the autumn, has the tools to find a workaround.
Defending champ Zverev (3) is in the bottom side of the draw, but in a different section, keeping him away from his conqueror in Vienna, Sinner.
Zverev’s serve (88% hold rate indoors) and baseline solidity should fuel a straightforward push to the quarter-finals, where 2020 champion Daniil Medvedev (11) could be his opponent.
Medvedev leads Zverev 13-7 in the pair’s lifetime head-to-head record, a run that includes nine wins in the players’ last 11 encounters, so you would have to back the Russian if these two cross paths again.
In the top half of the draw, all eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz as he bids to become the first Spaniard to win the Paris Masters since his compatriot David Ferrer did the deed in 2012.
Top seed Alcaraz, sidelined by an ankle tweak in Shanghai, is likely to face a quarter-final hurdle against Casper Ruud (8), if he manages to see off the chaff in the early rounds.
Alcaraz has a record of 5-1 against the Norwegian, though Ruud’s flat ball-striking suits indoors, so that match might not be without complication for the favourite.
Alcaraz was eliminated in the third round of the 2024 edition of the tournament by heroic, unfancied Frenchman Ugo Humbert, so he will have a point to prove this week.
Alexander Bublik (13), the Kazakh prankster who has already claimed four titles in 2025, could run into Taylor Fritz (4) in the other top-half section, while Australia’s Alex de Minaur (6) adds to the traffic on that side.
Rolex Masters 2025: the favourites
Jannik Sinner – 1.40 with Tonybet
Sinner is still chasing down his rival Alcaraz in the race for the number one ranking, with a gap of 840 points giving the Spaniard a buffer to protect. The 24-year-old withdrew in Shanghai due to cramping, but overcame the same issues to win the Vienna Open last week.
As the winner of the Australian Open and Wimbledon already this year, it’s easy to see why Sinner is fancied. However, he has had problems performing in Paris before, failing to make it past the third round in three attempts.
Carlos Alcaraz – 1.53 with Tonybet
The current world number one already has a haul of seven Grand Slam titles, which was boosted by his superb French Open and US Open victories in 2025. He beat Sinner in both finals to secure silverware, though he lost to the Italian in the recent Six Kings Slam event in Saudi Arabia.
Alcarez doesn’t tend to shine at this stage of the season. Indeed, his best effort in Paris was a quarter-final appearance a few years back, and he was dumped out of the tournament in the third round in 2024.
Alexander Zverev – 5.99 with Tonybet
Defending champion Zverev has endured a campaign of ups and downs, though he did reach his first Australian Open final this year. The German also celebrated his 28th birthday in style by clinching the BMW Open in Munich in his homeland.
However, inconsistency remains, and his quarter-final exit at Roland Garros and a surprising first-round defeat at Wimbledon to Arthur Rinderknech were gut-wrenchers. He did reach the final of the Vienna Open last week, where he narrowly lost out to Sinner.
Better value elsewhere?
There are reasons to oppose both Sinner and Alcaraz this week, especially at the prices on offer, so let’s look at some bigger-priced alternatives with potential.
Daniil Medvedev (34.00 with Tonybet)
Winner of the Paris Masters in 2020 and a beaten finalist in 2021, Daniil Medvedev ended an 882-day wait for a title when he won the Almaty Open final in Kazakhstan earlier in October.
He bowed out early in Vienna last week in a second-round loss to Corentin Moutet, though the tournament followed hot on the heels of his win in Astana, so he can be forgiven for his lax showing.
Now well rested, he heads to Paris as a possible threat. The 29-year-old loves quick conditions, and the new courts at La Défense Arena could set him up nicely. At a sizeable 34.00, he’s priced attractively in the circumstances.
Alex de Minaur (21.00 with Tonybet)
26-year-old Aussie Alex de Minaur also catches the eye at a meaty price. He has reached two ATP Tour finals this year, which proves his pedigree, and he won the second of those at Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s expense in the Washington Open in July.
It’s also worth noting that eight of De Minaur’s wins have come on hard courts, and the world number seven has reached the quarter-final stage in his last two appearances at the Paris Masters.
Using those performances as a foundation, he could make the most of a kind draw to progress even further in this year’s tournament.
Keep up to date with Tonybet
Here at Tonybet, we’ll be tracking all of the action as it unfolds at the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters. If you fancy a flutter, we’ll have odds for multiple markets for every match right through to the competition’s final on Sunday 2nd November. Stay with Tonybet for comprehensive tennis betting markets.
