Any team that reaches the Women’s Rugby World Cup semi-finals will know that they are in for the toughest game of their campaign so far. Long before the tournament started, the Women’s Rugby World Cup title was expected to go to only one of a small handful of teams.
England’s Red Roses were the pre-tournament favourites, with reigning champions New Zealand arguably their biggest challengers, and France and Canada the most likely to disrupt the big two. It’s those four who lead the way as favourites to secure berths in the final four.
The semi-finals will bring untold drama as a place in the Women’s Rugby World Cup final awaits. But who will get through, and what do the current odds say about how the matches are expected to play out?
Find out more about the latest Women’s Rugby World Cup odds at Tonybet!
The expanded format
The 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup is the first edition to feature 16 teams, a positive sign of the growth of the women’s game. All teams would obviously love to be in the semi-finals, and not just because of prestige, but also because reaching the final four guarantees automatic qualification for the next World Cup.
How qualifying played out
New Zealand, England, France and Canada were the four semi-finalists from the 2021 Women’s Rugby World Cup, so all automatically booked a spot for 2025. They were joined by six qualifiers from regional tournaments, with South Africa, Japan, the United States, Fiji, Brazil and Ireland securing spots through this route.
The remaining six places went to the next six highest-ranked teams from last year’s WXV that hadn’t already qualified. This opened the door for Italy, Scotland, Wales, Spain, Australia and Samoa.
That led to the draw for the pool stage of:
- Pool A: England, Australia, United States, Samoa
- Pool B: Canada, Scotland, Wales, Fiji
- Pool C: New Zealand, Ireland, Japan, Spain
- Pool D: France, Italy, South Africa, Brazil
When and where are the Women’s Rugby World Cup semi-finals?
Both semi-finals of the Women’s Rugby World Cup are being held at Ashton Gate in Bristol. The first of those, from the top half of the draw, is on 19th September with a kick-off time of 7:00pm. This is followed by the semi-final from the bottom half of the draw the following day with an earlier kick-off time of 3:30pm.
Current Women’s Rugby World Rankings
- England
- Canada
- New Zealand
- France
- Ireland
- Scotland
Semi-finals overview
The top seeds of each pool won their respective section as expected. The slightly unfortunate thing is that all the qualified European teams were kept together in the bottom half, meaning a lack of exciting Northern Hemisphere vs Southern Hemisphere clashes until potentially the final.
The projection is that, barring a massive upset, the competition’s big four will all be in the semi-finals.
Quarter-finals*
- New Zealand vs South Africa
- Canada vs Australia
- France vs Ireland
- England vs Scotland
*seeded favourites
Ireland’s progress
After the huge disappointment of not qualifying for the 2021 Rugby World Cup, Ireland Women made it back to the big stage after finishing third in the 2025 Six Nations. Ireland’s best finish ever at the World Cup was in 2014 when, after topping their group containing New Zealand, the United States and Kazakhstan, they qualified for the semi-finals.
They were heavily defeated 7-40 by England at that stage, and subsequently lost to France in the third-place playoff, but it was still a huge achievement for the Irish.
Ireland’s record at the Women’s Rugby World Cup
- 1994 – 8th
- 1998 – 10th
- 2002 – 14th
- 2006 – 8th
- 2010 – 7th
- 2014 – 4th
- 2017 – 8th
- 2021 – Did not qualify
Ireland Women finished as runners-up in Pool C following victories over Japan and Spain. Then, in the decider for top spot, they were overpowered by New Zealand, losing 40-0 to the reigning World Champions.
Ireland Women are currently ranked fifth in the world standings, so by that measure would be the best dark horse of the tournament, and they did secure a famous win over New Zealand last year at WXV.
The odds, however, suggest that it will be the big four heading through to the semi-finals, but how are those teams shaping up?
England
England are the number one-ranked team in the world and haven’t lost a match since their 2021 World Cup final loss to New Zealand. The pressure on head coach John Mitchell to get his Red Roses over the finish line, this time on home soil, is immense and they are naturally outright favourites.
The Red Roses won this year’s Six Nations Grand Slam with the narrowest of victories over France, but there were cracks in England’s defence that gave a little bit of hope to the other main contenders at this year’s World Cup.
With the likes of Alex Matthews, Marlie Packer, Natasha Hunt, and the devastating power in the backs through Abby Dow and Ellie Kildunne, the depth of talent that the Red Roses have is enviable. Unloading the bench gives them huge advances in the second half of matches.
Stat: Before the start of this tournament, England Women were on a 58-match unbeaten streak.
Number of Women’s Rugby World Cup wins
- New Zealand: 6
- England: 2
- United States: 1
New Zealand
New Zealand have claimed a record six World Cup titles. In the 2021 final, they were underdogs in their own backyard at Eden Park against the much-fancied England. However, they took their chances when England’s Lydia Thompson was given a red card in the 18th minute, and it once again reinforced the fact that New Zealand know how to win finals, even against the odds.
Look out for the exciting Jorja Miller, with the youngster being one of the most talented backs in the world. New Zealand ran up 156 points in total during pool stage victories over Ireland, Japan and Spain.
Stat: Five of the last six finals have been New Zealand vs England, with the Kiwis winning them all.
Canada
Canada went into the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup ranked second in the world. They looked very confident and gave England a stern test in the final of the 2024 WXV1, despite losing 12-21. They are no strangers to going deep in the World Cup either, finishing in the top four in five of the last seven editions.
The Canucks have been on the up for the last couple of years and comfortably topped their pool stage, setting up a quarter-final clash with Australia, a team they hammered 45-7 back in the summer.
Stat: Canada lost the 2014 Women’s Rugby World Cup final 21-9 to England.
France
In the 2025 Women’s Six Nations final, the French had England rattled badly and tore through the Red Roses, intelligently keeping the ball alive and battering their way through England’s first line of defence, time and time again.
However, they don’t have the tightest of defences, which could trip them up. France were untroubled in the pool stage against Brazil, Italy and South Africa, averaging more than 50 points per game, and full back Emilie Boulard was in great scoring form.
Stat: France have finished third in seven of the eight previous World Cups and have never reached the final.
Current odds analysis
England remain the firm outright favourites to lift the trophy at 1.25 odds-on, which is not too surprising given their tremendous run of form and the resilience they have shown to keep it going. The big question mark about England’s challenge is over their superstar Ellie Kildunne, who suffered a concussion in the final pool stage match, potentially keeping her out of both the quarter-finals and semi-finals. That would be a huge blow for England, but perhaps not enough to write them off as they won their Six Nations decider against France earlier this year without her.
New Zealand Women, given their incredible record of winning the tournament, are the 5.46 second favourites. Interestingly, New Zealand lost two of their three games at WXV1 last year (against England and Ireland), the last stern test they really faced.
Canada Women are 7.44 because of having the toughest route to the title, potentially having to beat both New Zealand and England in the knockouts, which is a tall order. Then, the French Women are out at 17.0, because they also face the same potential challenges and are not as strong as the Canucks.
Ahead of the quarter-final match against France, Ireland Women sat at a quote of 150.0 outright in the tournament’s betting odds. They need to go through the French, and then potentially England and New Zealand, to pull off the ultimate sporting success.
Key matchups
If things go to form in the Women’s Rugby World Cup betting odds, we could be looking at a New Zealand vs Canada and a France vs England semi-final line-up. What may unfold out of those heavyweight showdowns?
France vs England
England narrowly had the beating of France at this year’s Six Nations and again would be favourites in a semi-final clash against them. It was a strange performance from the Red Roses in Paris, because England were on top through the early stages, and then lost all sense of shape and organisation.
Part of this was down to the bold approach of the French, who just attacked them. Most teams just try to contain England, but the French showed that it may just be better going for broke against the Red Roses. Still, England will be firm favourites to win their semi-final, as they have won 45 of their previous 58 fixtures against France.
New Zealand vs Canada
The semi-final odds for this match outright would likely be close, with Canada slight underdogs. This would arguably give them plenty of appeal, as the Canucks look fired up and played out a fantastic 27-27 draw with New Zealand earlier this year.
There’s a feeling that if an upset is going to happen in the World Cup, then it could be here. Arguably, Canada winning wouldn’t be an upset as they are ranked above the Kiwis, but New Zealand have the World Cup-winning pedigree behind them.
Canada have only won one of their previous 19 Tests against New Zealand, and what better time than in the semi-finals of this year’s World Cup to get their second? This could potentially be a very tight contest, with a narrow margin of points between the two sides that will give each other plenty of respect on the pitch.
Our expert predictions
Whichever way the semi-finals of the World Cup go, there’s plenty of exciting drama still to look forward to. You can keep up to date with all the latest tournament outright and semi-final odds at Tonybet. There will also be live odds for all remaining matches of the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup.
Get the latest rugby odds for all the top fixtures at Tonybet!
