The Guinness Six Nations returns to Dublin on Saturday 14th February, when an Ireland side still rattling from a humbling first outing in Paris take on Italy at the Aviva Stadium at 2:10pm local time.
Last week’s 36-14 opening-day defeat to France was a sobering occasion for an evolving Irish team, and a statement performance from Andy Farrell’s side against the visiting Italians is required to restore some confidence.
The Azzurri, meanwhile, will be travelling on a high following their gritty 18-15 triumph over Scotland in Rome. That was their first Six Nations victory in an opening fixture since 2013, and with momentum to build on, Italy should be menacing.
With Ireland’s vulnerabilities stark, could the unthinkable happen in Dublin? Ahead of the action, we’ve previewed Saturday’s game, with info on the latest team news and predictions priced from Tonybet’s comprehensive rugby markets.
Ireland preview
Ireland’s showing in their Round 1 loss in Paris last week threw up a series of questions that will need to be answered in Dublin on Saturday.
Post-match, there was talk of cracks in the Irish display, and an ill-conceived XV from Farrell that, despite its Leinster-heavy makeup, showed little chemistry in any phase of the game.
The players in green were dragged this way and that as France punished Ireland from minute one, just like they did when they hammered the Irish 42-27 in Dublin 11 months ago.
The French put five tries on the board last week, though the scenes might have been even uglier had Ireland not mustered a spirited second-half effort.
Saturday’s display against Italy just has to be better and the public are demanding sweeping changes to the team. Farrell is unlikely to slash and burn, however.
Tadhg Furlong has resumed full training and could feature, while Ulster back-row Bryn Ward has rejoined the squad. The fact that Ireland came through their chastening loss in France without any fresh injuries did offer some positivity.
Nick Timoney is pushing hard for back-row minutes after an impressive cameo off the bench, though the Sam Prendergast issue has been generating the most debate so far.
The Leinster fly-half drew a huge amount of criticism for his efforts in Paris, with many calling for the 22-year-old to be replaced by Jack Crowley against Italy. Farrell has a major call to make there, though the Prendergast issue isn’t the only one that needs solving.
The set piece, usually a strength, wobbled badly in Paris, so Farrell will demand a more dominant scrum and lineout performance this weekend. If Ireland can come out of the blocks quickly and build a positive scoreline early, the game should follow the familiar script against Italy.
Home advantage, of course, remains a significant factor, with Ireland enjoying complete dominance over Italy in matches between the two nations in Dublin. More on that later.
Here’s how Ireland might line up on Saturday: Loughman, Sheehan, Clarkson, McCarthy, Beirne, C. Prendergast, Van der Flier, Doris (c), Gibson-Park, S. Prendergast, Stockdale, McCloskey, Ringrose, O’Brien, Osborne.
Italy team preview
Italy aren’t used to fast starts at the Six Nations, so their 18-15 win over Scotland last weekend was a welcome and unexpected tonic.
In torrential rain and tough conditions at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Gonzalo Quesada’s side dominated the aerial battles throughout and raced into a 12-point lead within 14 minutes that they never looked like relinquishing.
The final scoreline was tight, but the Azzurri showed impressive defensive robustness in the closing stages when defending their lead, keeping Scotland at arm’s length despite the visitors’ growing desperation.
The victory will give Italy plenty of impetus to take to Dublin this weekend as they chase a first win in this fixture since 2013.
Captain Michele Lamaro spoke of “confidence in what we can do” after full-time in Rome and the squad’s belief that they now have the weapons to hurt the tournament’s bigger nations.
Louis Lynagh’s try against Scotland underlined the danger the Italians pose from broken play. Paolo Garbisi, who registered eight points last weekend, remains the heartbeat at 10, while the pack, led by Lamaro and Niccolò Cannone, showed that they can match physicality when conditions suit.
Quesada has instilled the belief that they are no longer the competition’s whipping boys. Four wins in their last nine Six Nations games is definite proof of progress. If they can replicate the intensity of the Scotland win and exploit any early Irish nerves, a famous result is not beyond them.
Italy are without Martin Page-Relo, Tommaso Allan, Sebastian Negri, Ross Vintcent, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Marco Riccioni and Edoardo Todaro, but the core of the Scotland-winning 23 remains intact.
Likely Italy XV (15-1): Fischetti, Nicotera, Ferrari, N. Cannone, Zambonin, Lamaro (c), Zuliani, L. Cannone, Fusco, Garbisi, Ioane, Menoncello, Brex, Lynagh, Marin.
H2H record
Ireland have been the dominant force in this fixture, and their head-to-head record against the Italians should embolden them ahead of the contest’s latest iteration on Saturday afternoon.
Of the 38 Test meetings between the nations since 1988, Ireland have come out on top 34 times, with Italy posting just four wins. The Italians’ last victory came 13 years ago in 2013, in a famous 22-15 triumph in Rome.
Since then, however, Ireland have had their revenge and then some, winning every single encounter, often with bonus points chucked in for good measure.
Last year, a Dan Sheehan hat-trick powered Ireland’s 22-17 win over Italy in Rome, while 12 months before that, there was an Irish whitewash in Dublin (36-0).
In 2023, Italy actually held a half-time advantage at the Aviva Stadium, before the hosts mounted a comeback to win 34-20.
In the last five meetings at the Aviva, Ireland have averaged a meaty 41 points per game while conceding just 10 (avg.) at the opposite end. Anyone with Irish interest will hope for more of the same this weekend.
Players to watch
Dan Sheehan (hooker) – The 27-year-old Leinster man battled well in scrummages against superior numbers in France last week and was impressively accurate with his lineout deliveries. However, aside from a single early burst, Sheehan offered little in attack, falling below his usual high standards. The hooker scored a hat-trick against Italy in Rome last year, and drawing inspiration from that, he will hope to play a more pivotal role on Saturday.
Caelan Doris (no 8/captain) – Skipper Doris remains the heartbeat of Farrell’s side, though he didn’t set pulses racing in Paris. He did show up in the first half when others didn’t, but he still has so much more to offer. Doris made 15 tackles and completed 14 carries against France, though he is capable of improving on both figures against Italy.
Sam Prendergast (fly half) – The 22-year-old will be craving a shot at redemption on Saturday, though it isn’t yet clear whether he will be given a second chance. The youngster toiled during defensive phases against France and missed a game-high seven tackles. He will improve with experience – however, performing in the glare of the Six Nations could lead to more moments of discomfort.
Garry Ringrose (centre) – It’s difficult to know what to make of Ringrose at the moment. He remains an easy pick for Farrell, though his levels for both club and province seem to have dropped. The 31-year-old made little impact from an attacking perspective against France and didn’t shine defensively either. He needs to remind everyone what he’s made of against Italy.
Louis Lynagh (wing) – Lynagh was a star performer for Italy against Scotland, finishing beautifully for the game’s opener to nail his fourth Test try. He was brave and committed throughout, and he has the kind of skillset that could have his Irish counterparts on the back foot.
Ignacio Brex (centre) – The Argentina-born slugger marked his 50th cap for Italy with a well-rounded display against the Scots a week ago. His kick through for Lynagh’s try was a thing of beauty, and in less-than-ideal conditions in Rome, Brex did prime work, keeping his team’s shape intact when the game threatened to descend into chaos. He should be a potent weapon in Dublin.
Paolo Garbisi (fly-half) – Still the general, Garbisi can be laser accurate with his kicking, and his shooting will be central to Italy’s chances this weekend. He had a strange day against the Scots, which was always likely in the driving rain, though some of his tactical kicking was still superb. He can be exposed defensively, however, which is something that Ireland might target.
Our expert predictions
Tonybet’s match result odds:
- Ireland to win – 1.05
- Italy to win – 10.00
With this fixture’s history speaking volumes and home advantage there to harness, Ireland should win on Saturday, though the manner of the victory is probably the best place to search for value in Tonybet’s markets for Ireland vs Italy in Dublin.
In an ideal world, Ireland would muster the perfect response to last week’s debacle in Paris by running roughshod over the Italians – however, a wide-margin win feels a little unrealistic for this stuttering Irish outfit.
This makes visiting Italy the keener prospect in the handicap stakes, where Tonybet’s prices offer buckets of value. Last year, Ireland edged out the Azzurri 22-17 in Rome, and it wouldn’t be too much of a shock if something similar unfolded on Saturday.
With Italy wielding plenty of attacking threat, a couple of tries should be within reach at the Aviva, which could make for a nervy afternoon from an Irish perspective. As a consequence, Italy are favoured in the +16.5-points handicap market at 2.09 here.
Tonybet has a full range of Six Nations options, including match winner, handicap, total points and player specials for Ireland vs Italy. Betting markets for all of the competition’s other games, as well as Six Nations outright markets, are also available with Tonybet.
