November is here, which means that rugby fans up and down Ireland are eagerly anticipating the Autumn Internationals in Dublin. On Saturday 8th November at 12:40pm, Ireland will host their match against Japan at the Aviva Stadium.
The fixture is part of a busy autumn schedule for Ireland, and head coach Andy Farrell will be using the series as an opportunity to look at the squad ahead of future tournaments.
For Japan, this match represents a chance to measure themselves against one of the sport’s most complete teams under the familiar gaze of former England head coach Eddie Jones.
Ireland will be looking to reinforce their home dominance while Japan continue their project of regeneration. Both sides will be approaching the contest with different expectations but with the same motivation.
Check out the pre-match odds on Ireland vs Japan here.
Ireland team preview
Ireland enter the November series full of confidence. Andy Farrell’s squad, as always, has a core of world-class performers. However, there are also notable absences that will shape the complexion of his side. Injuries to Hugo Keenan, Calvin Nash and Cormac Izuchukwu automatically remove several established names from the matchday squad before a ball is even kicked.
This has ultimately forced Farrell to rely on a mixture of experienced players and ambitious younger players hungry to make their mark on the international stage.
To put a positive spin on it, the autumn fixtures arrive at an opportune time. The defeat to South Africa earlier in the year reminded Ireland that even at their peak, there is still work to be done in converting dominance when it comes to the final score.
The inclusion of younger players, such as Paddy McCarthy, signals that Farrell is committed to looking at new talent where possible. McCarthy, who recently earned his first cap during Ireland’s tour in Chicago, represents the next wave of Irish forwards eager to represent their country.
His development could be one of the stories of the season – and the game against Japan offers an ideal test for him.
The likely Irish lineup will continue to blend the steady hands of veterans with the spark of emerging talent. In the pack, Ireland will look to assert themselves early, seeking dominance in the scrum and efficiency in the lineout.
Farrell’s system is built on control, using relentless phases to exhaust opposition forwards and generate the quick, clean ball that allows the backline to operate.
Discipline at the breakdown remains central to this, with players such as Josh van der Flier and Jack Conan expected to provide the defensive steel needed to maintain structure.
Behind the scrum, the Irish backline will likely remain fluid depending on the fitness and availability of certain individuals. On their day, Ireland’s attacking shape is one of the most structured in world rugby: forwards carrying in pods, playmakers interlinking around the gain line, and the back three exploiting space in wide channels.
At home, when the crowd is in full voice, that rhythm can become overwhelming for visiting sides. However, Farrell will want to avoid complacency, particularly against a Japanese side that thrives when chaos creeps into the game.
If Ireland can impose their tempo and put their best foot forward, they will be expected to control the contest from the first whistle to the last and come out on top fairly comfortably.
Japan team preview
For Japan, this fixture represents a challenge but also an opportunity for new faces. Under the direction of Eddie Jones, the Brave Blossoms continue to rebuild following a difficult few years.
Jones’ second tenure in charge has been marked by a desire to refresh the squad and re-establish the high-tempo identity that made Japan such a thrilling watch during the 2019 World Cup.
His selection for the autumn series underlines that philosophy. He has named 21 forwards and 19 backs, many of whom are still fairly fresh on the international stage.
Eight players are uncapped, while a number of them have fewer than 10 test appearances to their name. This is a team consciously investing in its own future.
The return of Michael Leitch is a major boost. The captain missed most of the Pacific Nations Cup campaign through injury, and his reintroduction provides not only experience but also leadership to what is a young group.
Alongside him will be Warner Dearns, who is one of the rising stars of Japanese rugby and has been rewarded with co-captaincy duties in recent months. The lock forward’s athleticism and work rate have been central to Japan’s competitiveness in recent times, and he’s establishing himself as an integral part of the squad. With fellow co-captain Mamoru Harada still unavailable, Dearns has become even more pivotal.
Jones’ approach has been pragmatic. He recognises that Japan cannot win a physical battle against Ireland over 80 minutes, but they can win certain moments and areas of the pitch – and it will be those short bursts of momentum that can potentially create some form of chaos for Ireland to deal with.
Japan’s game plan will revolve around tempo and exploiting any defensive drift.
However, the challenge for Japan will be consistency. Against a side as disciplined as Ireland, even minor handling errors or turnovers can prove catastrophic. The Brave Blossoms will need to find accuracy in high-tempo play, a balance that has often eluded them against top-class opposition.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Jones’ philosophy thrives on underdog energy and his players tend to rise to the occasion when expectations are lower.
The Aviva Stadium atmosphere will test their composure. However, for Japan, the goal may not be limited to winning – it is about proving that their style and next generation of players can compete with rugby’s elite going forward.
Head-to-head record
Historically, Ireland and Japan are far from traditional rivals, yet their previous matches have produced some memorable contests.
The two nations have met 10 times in total, and it’s no surprise to learn that Ireland have won nine of those. The one exception remains one of rugby’s most iconic upsets: Japan’s stunning 19-12 win at the 2019 World Cup in Shizuoka.
That match, often referred to as the ‘Miracle of Shizuoka’, redefined perceptions of Japanese rugby around the world.
For Ireland, that defeat stung deeply. However, in the years since, Ireland have been quick to reassert their dominance. When the two sides met again in Dublin in 2021, Ireland produced a clinical performance and delivered an emphatic 60-5 victory.
The gulf between the two sides remains wide in consistency and physicality, but Japan’s capacity for defiance ensures that no fixture between them is ever routine.
The emotional residue of 2019 still lingers though – every time these two nations meet, that famous result for Japan is spoken about. For Ireland, it serves as a reminder to be cautious and motivated and to not take anything for granted.
Players to watch
While team structure and systems will shape the outcome of the match, it will also likely come down to individual brilliance and key moments.
Ireland’s emerging front-row talent Paddy McCarthy is one to watch closely. McCarthy recently earned his first cap, and his technical ability has kept him in the squad. A solid performance against Japan could help cement his role as one of Ireland’s long-term forward strategies.
Elsewhere, Ireland’s loose forwards – Josh van der Flier and Jack Conan – will play a crucial role not only in maintaining the overall tempo, but also in ensuring that Ireland dominate the contact area.
For Japan, all eyes will inevitably turn to Michael Leitch. His experience and physicality are invaluable in matches such as this. He has been the heartbeat of Japanese rugby for more than a decade and continues to set standards for the younger generation.
Alongside him, Warner Dearns represents the new face of Japanese ambition. If Dearns can disrupt Ireland’s lineout or slow their ruck ball, then Japan could create platforms for counter-attacks.
In the backline, the focus will likely fall on Japan’s uncapped or less experienced players, whose pace and unpredictability might just expose gaps in the Irish defensive line if opportunities arise.
Our expert predictions
The latest betting odds underline Ireland’s position as huge odds-on favourites and it’s hard to argue with that assessment. Ireland’s home advantage and superior squad depth make them the clear pick to see off Japan.
We’re expecting Andy Farrell’s men to dominate and grind down Japan through forward control, and a big scoreline could be on the cards. Japan’s best hope lies with the unpredictability of their younger players. However, sustaining that threat for 80 minutes in Dublin’s November chill is a different challenge entirely.
For bettors, it is clear that a comfortable Irish win looks likely. And with that in mind, it may be best to look at the handicap line rather than merely siding with the favourites.
Japan may have their moments, but an early try for Ireland should see them carve their opponents wide open. A scoreline of around Ireland 38-12 Japan is our prediction for the match.
For those looking to place a bet on Ireland vs Japan, head over to Tonybet for a wide range of markets and competitive odds for this match and the other Autumn Internationals.
