Leinster vs Ulster – provinces duel at the Aviva
Calendar icon Updated 14 Apr 08:22

Leinster vs Ulster – provinces duel at the Aviva

Lee Jackson

One of the most anticipated matches of the United Rugby Championship season takes place at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday 19th April. The headline act of Round 15 is Leinster vs Ulster, which takes centre stage at the home of Irish rugby, and the kick-off from the Aviva Stadium is at 7:45pm.

Table-topping Leinster have only suffered one loss this season on their march to the top of the standings, and they are the only side to have already qualified for the URC playoffs. The Ulstermen, meanwhile, will kick off Round 15 in sixth place and well adrift of their opponents. However, they still have plenty to play for in the closing stages of the season.

Ulster remain with an outside shot at a top-four finish, but this will only happen with a strong run of form, and picking up maximum points from this fixture would give them a massive boost. But can they defy their underdog odds in Dublin?

Leinster vs Ulster head-to-head form

This season’s earlier meeting was in late November, and Leinster ran out 27-10 winners in an absorbing match. Ulster had opened the scoring early in the fifth minute and had held a 13-10 advantage at the half-time break.

However, just after the break, there was a yellow card for Nick Timoney, and Leinster took full advantage of this by scoring a converted try, which gave them momentum. Despite Ulster hitting back with a score, Leinster ran in two further tries in the final 20 minutes to take a hard-earned victory at the Kingspan.

This result made it back-to-back wins for Leinster over Ulster, but things stand at two wins each in the last four meetings. In the last eight United Rugby Championship meetings, things are even at four wins each.

Leinster claimed a big 43-20 win over Ulster at home in last season’s URC, which gave them two wins in their last three on home turf against them. Leinster have won five of their last seven home fixtures against Ulster in the competition, so home advantage has been quite an important factor for them.

There have been at least 30 points recorded by Leinster in three of their last four home matches against Ulster in all competitions.

Last five Leinster vs Ulster head-to-head (URC)

Leinster squad – power in all positions

Leinster have one of the most enviable talent pools in world club rugby at the moment. Their quality and depth have seen them dominate this season’s United Rugby Championship as they look to claim their first title since 2021. Leinster have finished top of the regular season standings in four of the last five seasons.

The arrival of New Zealand star Jordie Barrett has elevated Leinster’s already impressive squad. Barrett is capable of producing performances that are just on another level, and the All Black can do it all, from carrying the ball to linking up with his extraordinary creative vision.

Hugo Keenan, Garry Ringrose and James Lowe are all massively impactful players on their day, posing threats from all over the field. Young fly-half Sam Prendergast is growing in stature all the time, as evidenced by his calm performances in this season’s Six Nations, and his partnership with scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park is likely going to be a staple of Leinster’s attack for years to come.

Leinster are stacked with talent in every position, but Josh van der Flier always seems to stand out. The forward never gives anything less than a barnstorming performance on both sides of the ball, while RG Snyman’s off-loading ability at the gain line has been transformative for Leinster this season.

Leinster’s recent form

Leinster took a stunning 52-0 win over the Glasgow Warriors in the European Rugby Champions Cup at the weekend. It was as complete of a performance as they could have produced, with Barrett at the heart of everything.

This was a real statement of intent by Leinster against the team they are looking to rip the URC title away from this season. Remarkably, this was the second game in a row from Leinster where they had scored at least 50 unanswered points, having hammered Harlequins 62-0 the week before in the European Champions Cup.

Their only loss this season in any competition came against the Bulls in a URC meeting in March, and that was only by a single-point margin. This is also their only loss since losing to the South Africans in last season’s URC playoffs.

Leinster’s last five results (all competitions)

Ulster squad – fast and furious

Ulster have been battling along, with a top-four finish in the URC the best that they can hope for. Perhaps the overall view of Ulster can be summed up by the lack of players representing the national team in this year’s Six Nations, with only four players getting called up to Simon Easterby’s 36-man squad.

They also have some good young talent at Ravenhill, such as Harry Sheridan and Cormac Izuchukwu, so the future looks bright, but it leaves Ulster currently looking like they are in a period of development. The strength of Ulster is in their backs, where they have furious pace and power, and this is where they can hurt teams when they get the likes of Jacob Stockdale and Nathan Doak involved in the action with the ball in hand.

When they play to their strengths, then, Ulster can pose plenty of problems for opponents in the URC. However, an area where they have had some struggles this season is upfront against heavy, mobile packs.

David McCann has been a defensive colossus for Ulster this season, continuously putting his body on the line in successful carries. He has been backed up well by Andrew Warwick and Nick Timoney, but overall, Ulster have been bossed around upfront, an area where the battle against Leinster could be won and lost at the weekend.

Ulster’s recent form

Ulster’s problems upfront were highlighted by a loss against Bordeaux Bègles in the Champions Cup earlier this month, having also lost against the forward power of Benetton and Zebre this season.

It has been a mixed bag of performances from Ulster overall this season, and the troubling thing for them defensively is that they have shipped at least 28 points in each of their last four matches in all competitions. Against Leinster, this could spell trouble.

Ulster have won three and lost three of their last six matches, and each win in the sequence was by no more than a four-point margin. So, they have been treading a thin line.

Ulster’s last five results (all competitions)

Leinster vs Ulster – who will win?

Leinster have been irresistible this season, which sees them heading into this derby match as firm favourites to complete the season double over Ulster. They will be firm favourites at the Aviva, especially on the back of their recent results where they have been scoring tries for fun and have been defensively rock solid.

The problem for Ulster is matching Leinster’s power upfront. This is not an area in which they are likely to gain a lot of control, so will they be brave and put the ball through the hands for a high-risk, high-reward style of play? This is going to be tough for them away from home, but it could put pressure on the home side.

Key stats

Each of the last four URC clashes between Leinster and Ulster has produced at least 40 points in total, and it’s a line to ponder over in the Points Total market. Both teams posted at least 20 points in each of those matches, and only one of those four games ended by a margin of more than seven points. Could an Ulster +7 or +10 handicap be on the radar?

Ultimately, Leinster have scored at least 36 points in each of their last five home matches in all competitions, and at least 42 in all but one of those. It’s the kind of scoring power that the visiting Ulstermen may have trouble keeping quiet across the 80 minutes, and Leinster look justifiable favourites.

URC Irish Shield form

Leinster have already won the regional Irish Shield in this season’s United Rugby Championship. They have claimed victory in all five matches played against the rest of the Irish contingent in the competition, with a +71 points difference. Ulster have a W2 L2 record against fellow Irish teams this season, with a +5 points difference.

Head to Tonybet for a look at the latest Leinster v Ulster rugby odds for this mouth-watering United Rugby Championship match. It’s still one of their great rugby fixtures and there’s plenty on the line for both teams. Along with the outright match market, look for the in-play rugby betting action after kick-off, where the focus shifts to the live odds on markets such as try scorers and points.

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