Ireland’s dreams of becoming the first nation to win three titles on the bounce were crushed at the hands of a mightily impressive France in Dublin last weekend. The loss also saw Ireland’s chance at a Grand Slam slide through their fingers. However, with one match to go, they still have an opportunity to finish the campaign on a high, and the top prize still isn’t completely out of reach.
Italy vs Ireland
Italy vs Ireland in Round 5 of the 2025 Six Nations kicks off at 14:15 GMT at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. It is the first match of the final round of action. Luke Pearce is the referee, and he is regarded as being a clear communicator.
Here are the essential things to note about Pearce:
- He was in charge when Ireland claimed their first-ever win over New Zealand in 2016.
- He was in the middle for last season’s Ireland vs Italy match in the Six Nations, which was his 50th.
- Assistant referees Angus Gardner and Morné Ferreira, with Andrew Jackson as the TMO, will join Pearce for the game.
What Ireland Need in Week 5
A victory for Ireland over Italy will send the Irish to the top of the standings. This is as much as they can do, and they will hope to move there with a bonus point to put pressure on the other title-chasing teams on Saturday.
Six Nations Standings
| Country | Points | Difference |
| France | 16 pts | +106 points difference |
| England | 15 pts | +20 points difference |
| Ireland | 14 pts | +13 points difference |
For Ireland to land the Six Nations title, they have to win, while they also need England to lose to Wales and France to lose to Scotland. Both England and France, however, are pre-match favourites for their respective fixtures.
Should Ireland win with a bonus point, it doesn’t change much – it only means that they’ll get the title if both France and England fail to win, essentially bringing the draw into the equation. So, mathematically, the title is not out of the question, but it will be a tall order for everything to fall into place for the men in green.
The Campaign So Far and What Happened Against France
Ireland’s Six Nations title defence began with a win against old rivals England in Dublin, and it was a result that was backed up by a commanding performance at Murrayfield, as Ireland beat Scotland by a margin of 14 points.
Interim head coach Simon Easterby then saw Ireland fight back to defeat a resurgent Welsh side in Cardiff. However, at home last week, with the chance of a three-peat in their own hands, Ireland found themselves overpowered in their own backyard by a rampant France.
After Les Bleus had lost the influential Antoine Dupont to a knee injury after 30 minutes, the match was still in the balance. Ireland had moved 13-8 ahead early in the second half when Dan Sheehan scored, but this just seemed to wake up the French.
France went up through the gears in response and scored four second half tries, with Thomas Ramos and Louis Bielle-Biarrey, in particular, having outstanding games. France scored 42 points in the match, their highest tally in Dublin, while Ireland suffered their first home defeat in the Six Nations since 2021.
Ireland’s Six Nations Clashes With Italy
Ireland ran out 36-0 winners in Dublin against Italy last year, with Jack Crowley opening the scoring as early as the sixth minute. It was all one-way traffic from there and the victory was Ireland’s 11th Six Nations victory in a row over the Italians. Ireland’s shock 22-15 defeat in 2013 remains their only loss in the Six Nations to Italy, having won 24 of their 25 previous clashes in the tournament.
Ireland’s Record In Italy
Ireland are unbeaten in their last five visits to Italy, and it’s a place where the men in green haven’t struggled to score points. Their last visit in 2023 was a fantastic high-scoring match that Ireland won 34-20 as Italy gave as good as they got on the day.
This was the third time in four visits that Ireland had recorded at least 34 points away to Italy in the Six Nations, with the biggest points haul coming in their 63-10 victory in 2017.
Overall, it has been 10 wins from 11 victories against Italy, and Ireland have only failed to reach at least 24 points on two occasions. So, there are good indicators that the men in green have more than a reasonable shot at picking up the try bonus at the weekend.
A Bounceback Is Needed
Ireland need a big performance after the disappointment of last week’s result at the Aviva Stadium. This should be a big motivator for them to cut loose a bit, throw the ball around and get their foot on the gas. Italy’s defence has given up plenty of chances in this year’s Six Nations, so a fast, strong running game from Ireland is probably going to yield results.
That’s not something they have always been able to do during this season’s championship, as they were stunted in the first halves of their fixtures against England and Wales, for example. However, throughout the campaign, Ireland have had clear periods of dominance, and at the start of both halves against France last week they were clearly the more dominant team but just couldn’t turn the pressure into points.
Italy produced their best display of the season in their loss against England at Twickenham last weekend. It was a gutsy performance, because one minute they looked capable of conceding 50+ points, and the next they were stringing together brilliant, inspirational counter-attacks that the French would have been proud of.
The more open Saturday’s game is, the more the Italians can take confidence from the positives of last week’s 47-24 loss. The passionate home support in Rome will certainly be behind them, and the Italians are also playing to avoid the wooden spoon, so they have plenty of motivation, even though the odds are stacked against them.
Last 10 Six Nations Winners
- 2024: Ireland
- 2023: Ireland (Grand Slam)
- 2022: France (Grand Slam)
- 2021: Wales
- 2020: England
- 2019: Wales (Grand Slam)
- 2018: Ireland (Grand Slam)
- 2017: England
- 2016: England (Grand Slam)
- 2015: Ireland
Ireland’s Outstanding Players in 2025
Simon Easterby’s side have two things to play for: pride and that outside chance of the Six Nations title. Despite not playing in every match, captain Caelan Doris showed his importance to the side against France, and so nearly scored what could have been a game-changing try. He will be much needed, as will Ireland’s man of the tournament, Josh van der Flier, whose carrying and tackling efforts have been second to none.
Jack Conan has also been immense for Ireland. The forward has scored in each of the last three matches (and scored a try against Italy last season), and is the tournament leader for a dominant carry rate (63%).
Jamison Gibson-Park has done his British and Irish Lions chances no harm, even though young Sam Prendergast has taken centre stage. The fly-half has carried a lot on his shoulders since taking the number 10 shirt from Jack Crowley and has generally handled it brilliantly. Prendergast struggled last week against the French, which could make him come back even stronger.
The Big Send-Off
Three stalwarts of Irish rugby will bow out of international action come the final whistle in Rome on Saturday. It will be the last act for Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Cian Healy in the famous green shirt as the centurions step aside for the next generation.
O’Mahony was the only one of the three to start last week against the French. Healy came on in the second half to replace Andrew Porter, while Murray was given a runout when he replaced Gibson-Park. Will the legends walk away from the international stage on the highest possible note of helping Ireland create Six Nations history?
Team News to Face Italy
Tight-head prop Tadhg Furlong is back in the mix after a long absence. Hamstring and calf injuries meant that he missed all of last year’s autumn action and the first four matches of this season’s Six Nations. Furlong makes a surprise return, his first appearance since January last year at club or international level.
Another returnee up for selection is Mack Hansen, who missed the game against France, while Garry Ringrose has served his suspension and so is available again. Ireland will wait on the news about Ronan Kelleher and James Lowe, the latter a late withdrawal from the planned starting line-up last week because of a back problem.
Italy’s Stand-Out Players in 2025
Once again, Italy’s squad has found the going pretty tough in this season’s Six Nations. They opened with a 31-19 loss against Scotland, before recording a 22-15 win over Wales in Rome. However, after that, they were destroyed on home turf when France visited in Round 3. Italy were soundly beaten 24-73 before falling to England 47-24 last week.
The positive for Italy is that they have scored at least 20 points in each of their last three matches, and fell just short of that against Scotland. But does this translate into being enough to beat Ireland? Maybe not, but it suggests that they can cause problems.
One of their star players was full-back Ange Capuozzo, who has been a breath of fresh air with inventive and decisive running when joining the back line. The backs in general have stood out for Italy – Paolo Garbisi has shown some great flashes of quality, while Tommaso Menoncello has looked a real livewire. South African born Ross Vintcent has been the pick of the Italian forwards.
Italy vs Ireland Prediction
Ireland are red-hot favourites to win the match, running at 1.1 (boosted odds from 1.07) to pick up the victory. So, the bookmakers have little doubt about the outcome, with Italy out at 11.64 (boosted from 8.4).
The focus is going to be more on how big of a margin Ireland can win the match by. Again, they have nothing to lose from this situation and everything to gain, and can be backed at 1.42 to record a Winning Margin of 15+.
In the handicap market, an Ireland -15 is at 1.51 odds, with a -21 option creeping up towards even money at a 1.98 quote. Regardless of what the score is going to be, Italy vs Ireland looks like it will be a high-scoring match, as fans expect to see Ireland’s most open game of the campaign.
To back this up, Italy have played with quite a passive defence throughout the tournament. They have stood off and mostly backed themselves to disrupt by jackling, which gives them a great base for their impressive counterattacks when they get it done. However, Ireland are extremely strong at the breakdown.
Italy’s passive defence also means that they give opposing backs a lot of time to work and assess the field ahead of them, which is something that Ireland can exploit out wide, whereas Italy are weaker defensively.
What the Stats Say
- Ireland have won all but one of their last eight Six Nations away games.
- The men in green have lost their last two away games played in Round 5 (2019, 2020).
- If Italy win, they will record multiple wins in back-to-back campaigns for the first time.
- Italy’s largest Six Nations home losing margin is 53 points, against Ireland in 2017.
- Italy have made the most dominant tackles in the 2025 Six Nations, and Ireland the least.
The big finish to the 2025 Six Nations is here, but how big will it be for Ireland? What score will they run up against Italy? Can Wales and Scotland do them a favour against England and France respectively? History is still on the line and you can check out the latest rugby betting odds at Tonybet for full coverage of the final round of action with pre-match and in-play markets.
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