Australia’s famous horse race, the Melbourne Cup, is right around the corner. Set to take place on Tuesday 5th November at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, it draws horse racing fans from all over the world, whether they’re at the track, keeping up to date on Tonybet’s sportsbook or watching it on TV.
Known as ‘the race that stops the nation’, it’s no surprise to see those based in the UK or Ireland set their alarms earlier than usual to tune in to catch the action.
However, it’s not just about the racing, as the Melbourne Cup Carnival opens its arms to both racing fans and those looking to get into the sport. Whether you’re into horse racing or not, it’s a chance to enjoy one of the best races of the year, experience the energy from the crowd, and hopefully make some money along the way.
Let’s take a look at the competitors and who to potentially bet on.
It’s a long-haul flight and long odds for an Irish winner
Irish winners are few and far between in the Melbourne Cup, but you only have to go back to 2020 to find the last one. Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien won on that occasion with Twilight Payment, having also been successful in 2017 with Rekindling.
Joseph O’Brien perhaps took inspiration from Dermot Weld, who was the first Irish trainer to win the Melbourne Cup back in 1993 with Vintage Crop. That victory was a huge turning point for the race, as more international trainers began to travel far and wide to compete. Weld would also go on to win the race in 2002 with Media Puzzle. The Irish, therefore, are not without hope when it comes to this historic race.
However, one man who won’t be there is Aidan O’Brien. The Irish trainer was set to enter Jan Brueghel, but Racing Victoria’s stewards have not allowed his horse to run after a veterinary check showed a ‘heightened risk of injury’ the week before the race.
O’Brien slammed the decision, having targeted the race for Jan Brueghel all season long. Among the favourites to win the Melbourne Cup, the non-runner has blown the race wide open, and there is now just one Irish trainer with entries.
That man is Willie Mullins, who has a two-pronged attack for the Melbourne Cup, with both his horses towards the top of the betting market.
Mullins fancies his chances in 2024
Both Absurde and Vauban will run for Willie Mullins, and there’s every reason to believe that his six-year-olds can run big races Down Under.
Vauban, currently priced at 6/1, was sent off as the favourite last year but could only manage 14th place. Absurde, who is 10/1 this time around, did better than Vauban last year when finishing seventh, but was still almost six lengths off the winner.
However, Mullins remains confident with his duo and was always going to bring them back now that they have experience.
The trainer’s assistant, David Casey, said to the Racing Post:
We were very keen to come back with both horses. Absurde ran really well in seventh and had been on the pace when everything involved came from way off the pace, so on the day we got the tactics wrong with both horses.
We felt we left something behind with Vauban as well and he didn’t give his true running. His owners Rich and Susannah Ricci were very keen to come back and have another go and we think he’s better than he showed last year. Hopefully we’ll be proved right.
Last year, it was Ryan Moore who was on board. However, this time around, Mullins has selected William Buick to take the ride of Vauban, who was on board when winning the Lonsdale Cup at York. Buick also rode Vauban to a close second behind Kyprios in the Irish St. Leger.
Arguably, Vauban’s form is stronger than 12 months ago, and now having experience with the track, Mullins will be hoping that his six-year-old can strike with less pressure on his back.
The Irish trainer was also very up front in a recent interview about Vauban’s preparation last time. He revealed that he wasn’t happy with him upon arriving in Australia, and that he perhaps had too much running before the main event.
With less running beforehand this time, those backing Vauban will be hoping for a much stronger performance.
The Melbourne Cup wasn’t always the plan for Absurde, which is why he is a bigger price than Vauban in the market. However, it was the six-year-old’s impressive performances that gave Mullins little to no choice to bring him back to Australia for a second attempt.
The trainer said: “With Absurde, we were originally thinking of coming for the Caulfield Cup but when we shelved that plan after winning at Chester, we decided to go straight in.”
However, although Mullins has high hopes for his stars, last year showed how competitive this race can be, and there are plenty of other horses and trainers who will be doing their best to win the trophy.
Competition will be stiff
The current favourite in the market is Chris Waller’s Buckaroo at 4/1. The five-year-old heads into the race off the back of a couple of second places – he was beaten by a head in the Turnbull Stakes on his penultimate run at Flemington Racecourse.
Not only is Waller a leading trainer and one of the best in Australia, but his horses, including Buckaroo, also have course experience, which is invaluable – and an immediate advantage.
Buckaroo was second and disappointed his backers in the Caulfield Cup, but the five-year-old was caught in heavy traffic and denied a clear run. Without that trouble, he looked destined to come out on top.
Jockey João Moreira, known as the ‘Magic Man’, is back on board, and with the pair striking a good relationship, he’ll know where to position Buckaroo to get the best out of him in the Melbourne Cup.
Trainer Brian Ellison also has a strong chance with Onesmoothoperator, currently the second favourite to win at 11/2. Jockey Craig Williams, a former Melbourne Cup winner, is on board, and it’s worth pointing out how Onesmoothoperator romped home last time out in the Ladbrokes Geelong Cup. The British-trained horse looks to be a big threat to Mullins’ pair, as well as Buckaroo, and it would not be a surprise to see Williams steer him to victory.
Chris Waller also has Land Legend running at 12/1, while Harry Eustace isn’t without hope as Sea King will be looking to strike late – also priced at 12/1. The field appears to be as competitive as ever, and this is going to be a race well worth getting up for.
But the favourite rarely wins the Melbourne Cup
However, what is interesting to note is that in the past decade, only one favourite has won the Melbourne Cup, highlighting how unpredictable and challenging it can be to pick a clear frontrunner.
The sole favourite to secure a win during this period was Fiorente, trained by Gai Waterhouse, in 2013. Other favourites over the years have struggled to place high or even finish close, with many falling outside the top five – including Vauban only last year.
This low success rate among favourites shows just how competitive the Melbourne Cup can be, and factors such as weight, stamina and even the weather can heavily influence the outcome.
The Melbourne Cup’s unpredictability is what keeps fans and bettors on their toes, and perhaps why the Irish contingency can dream that they can have their first winner since 2020 on Tuesday morning.
Whoever wins, this isn’t a race to be missed, and one that normally provides plenty of drama. If you’re looking to place a bet on the Melbourne Cup, make sure that you visit Tonybet for the best possible prices on all runners, whether you are siding with the Irish or taking them on.
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