The Boys in Green haven’t qualified for the Euros and the glory days of Tony Cascarino and Ray Houghton putting the ball in the back of the England net are gone!
If you’ve seen our Euros TV ad, you’ll know that we get it: we need to find another team to cheer for. And we almost certainly won’t be backing our closest neighbours, England.
Scotland are where most of us would naturally fit, but the Tartan Army have never progressed beyond Group stage in the Euros and that’s unlikely to change this year. We need to find a team who can carry us through to the finals.
It’s time to choose your fighter to knock out the Lions. So, if you want to place a few bets, cheer for the team likeliest to beat the English – we’ve got everything you need to know below!
The group stage
England begin their latest quest to end a 58-year wait (chortle) for a trophy in Euro 2024’s group stage where they share a section with Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia.
While all three of those opponents have the potential to be tricky customers for the Three Lions, England have been priced as short as 19/50 with TonyBet to top the pile in Group C for good reason, and we may need to accept that they are very likely to qualify for the knockout phase.
England overcame a stiff Danish challenge after extra time in the semi-finals of the last European Championship, and while the Danes pocketed four points from two encounters with the English in the Nations League in 2020, they’ve never managed to beat England in four previous meetings at major tournaments.
Remarkably, England have never locked horns with Serbia in a competitive clash, though the Balkans side didn’t exactly set the world alight when winning just 50% of their Euro 2024 qualification fixtures.
Slovenia, meanwhile, have never collided with England in the European Championship – or the World Cup for that matter – though they were relatively familiar foes for the English between 2010 and 2017.
England won four of their five tussles with Slovenia during that period, running up an aggregate score of 8-3 in the process. Although the personnel have changed in both camps in the time since, a trend-bucking result shouldn’t be anticipated when the sides meet on matchday three in Cologne on 25th June.
Behind England, who are favourites to win Group C outright, Denmark are next in line to qualify according to TonyBet at odds of 33/100, with Serbia priced at 57/100 to make it out and Slovenia (5/4) likeliest to prop up the rest.
Let’s hope they meet Italy…
The sight of Italy denying England their ‘destiny’ on their own patch at Wembley Stadium in the final of Euro 2020 warmed the cockles of Irish hearts everywhere, and those of an anti-English persuasion might need help from the Azzurri to stop the Three Lions in their tracks again in Germany this summer.
If as expected, England coast to top spot in Group C, another disappointingly winnable bout against the best third-placed finisher from Group D, E or F would be on the menu for Gareth Southgate’s trophy-hungry troops in the Round of 16 on 30th June.
A rapid run-through of possible permutations from those sections suggests that one of Austria, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey or Czech Republic could be waiting for England after the qualification shake-up, though you would have to fancy the English to emerge from any head-to-head with any combatant on that list.
However, there is a relatively easy-to-plot scenario that would put England on a collision course with Italy in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 in Dusseldorf on 6th July, and a date with Luciano Spalletti’s defending champions would set knees knocking in the English ranks.
Two-time European Championship winners and finalists in three of the last six editions of the competition, tournament specialists Italy have an unblemished record against England at the Euros, winning all three previous skirmishes between the nations on that stage, though two of those three showdowns did go to penalties.
England, of course, were drawn in the same Euro 2024 qualification group alongside the Italians and enjoyed a double-pronged revenge mission over their Euro 2020 final conquerors during their campaign, beating Italy both home (3-1) and away (2-1) en route to claiming the top spot.
Italy head coach Luciano Spalletti’s first and only defeat as Azzurri manager to date came in that 3-1 reverse to England at Wembley Stadium on an evening when the contest itself was probably tighter than the final scoreline suggested.
TonyBet has Italy priced at 1,397/100 to win Euro 2024 outright, though they are a meatier 137/50 to be eliminated at the quarter-final stage. England are an even bigger 349/100 to be dumped out at the same stage – so, fingers crossed.
Portugal are on our side…
If Italy cannot dash England’s dreams for the second European Championship running, then perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal can extinguish English hopes in the latter stages of this summer’s tournament.
Portugal inflicted another painful penalty shootout defeat on England when the nations’ paths crossed at the quarter-finals of Euro 2004, and the Seleção achieved another spot-kick win over the Three Lions two years later at the same stage of the 2006 World Cup.
At Euro 2000, Portugal roared back from two goals down to beat England 3-2 on matchday one in Group A, and Kevin Keegan’s star-studded squad never really recovered and were eventually eliminated before the knockout phase.
24 years later, England are unlikely to be enthused about the prospect of facing a side that contains prime Premier League performers such as Bruno Fernandes, João Palhinha, Bernardo Silva and Rúben Dias, but alas, the Portuguese might not get an opportunity to dampen English spirits again.
Portugal are expected to set the standard in Group F ahead of Turkey, Czech Republic and Georgia, and a first-place finish there would keep them on the opposite side of the draw to England in the knockout stage.
If things fall into place as they should, then the only real shot of a Portugal vs England face-off at Euro 2024 would be in the tournament’s final on 14th July. You can back dark horses Portugal to win Euro 2024 outright at 639/100 with TonyBet.
Teams that have not lost to England in the Euros
Six other nations have never been beaten by England at the Euros, including Romania, France, Iceland, Belgium, the now-defunct Yugoslavia, and our own Republic of Ireland.
Admittedly, a one-game sample size narrows the parameters. However, Ireland’s historic 1-0 win over England at Euro 88 (with Ray Houghton’s famous strike immortalised in the song ‘Joxer Goes to Stuttgart’ by Christy Moore) earned the Boys in Green a 100% win rate over their bitter rivals at the European Championship.
If you’re looking for silver linings, then that record will remain intact this year, regardless of the outcome of England’s latest continental adventure.
Two of the teams with unbeaten Euros records against England – Romania and Belgium – will compete in the same section in Germany this summer, and both sides must emerge from Group E to schedule another meeting with the English in the competition’s latter rounds.
If either Belgium or Romania finish third in Group E (which is likely to be the latter), then a clash with England in the Round of 16 could await, while the winner of the section could come back around to merge with England in the semi-finals (likely to be the former).
Belgium, who came closest to winning the Euros when they were runners-up in 1980, are down the reckoning as eighth favourites to win Euro 2024 at 388/25 with TonyBet.
France, meanwhile, were unbeaten group stage opponents for England in three previous European Championships (2012, 2004 and 1992), and Les Blues also delivered the fatal blow to English hopes of winning the World Cup in Qatar in 2022 in the quarter-finals.
TonyBet has made the 189/50 French second favourites behind England to win the Henri Delaunay Trophy this summer, though it remains probable that only one of them can reach the final itself.
If things go according to plan, both England and France will need to progress through the same side of the knockout phase draw to make the tournament’s showpiece occasion in Berlin, though a rendezvous in the semi-finals could conceivably be in the works.
Any other angle worth taking?
In 2021, Italy put England’s champagne back on ice and sparked second-hand celebrations across Ireland when they beat them in the final at the last Euros. However, in 1996, Germany rose to the occasion in similar circumstances when they beat the Three Lions on penalty kicks in the tournament’s semi-finals at Wembley Stadium.
If Die Mannschaft harness home advantage properly this summer and canter to the top of Group A ahead of Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland, then they won’t be able to able to test themselves against the old enemy until the competition’s final, should both Germany and England get that far.
However, another English slip at the final hurdle against a raucous celebratory backdrop in Berlin sounds like a good way to cap the tournament from an Irish perspective.
TonyBet has installed Germany as 517/100 third favourites to go all the way at Euro 2024, but if you’re looking to throw in your lot with another team this summer, then Julian Nagelsmann’s exciting side have got decent credentials.
The three-time winners and record six-time finalists have excellent tournament pedigree, and performances since Nagelsmann’s appointment have been slick.
The host nation at the Euros has generally done pretty well since the turn of the century, and before hosting duties were shared across the continent for Euro 2020, the competition’s hosts reached the semi-finals or better in four out of six Championships since 2000.
You should always look for a bit of longevity when picking a team to follow at an international tournament, so we invite you to push that intrinsically Irish need to root for the underdog to one side for the summer.
As the saying goes, ‘the enemy of your enemy is your friend’! Get behind England’s World Cup conquerors France or hosts and their traditional antagonists Germany at Euro 2024. Alternatively, look to Italy or Portugal for salvation in July and give yourself every chance to satisfy your ‘anyone but the English’ leanings.
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