A place in Division B of the UEFA Nations League is on the table in this two-legged promotion/relegation play-off tie between Bulgaria and Ireland.
Ireland’s head coach Heimir Hallgrímsson heads into these important fixtures under pressure, having won just two of his six matches in charge, losing the other four and failing to impress.
Dismal performances against England and Greece have left Ireland in this unfavourable position, and they have showed very little going forward to threaten nations that are further down the line than Hallgrímsson’s team.
There’s a huge amount of pressure on the Icelandic to guide Ireland through these two matches against Bulgaria – and anything other than success is likely to result in an early dismissal for the head coach.
His tactics and squad choices have been questioned throughout the Nations League matches, and fans will be hoping that they can salvage their place and replicate similar performances against Finland in order to avoid relegation.
Bulgaria, however, will head into this match full of confidence having lost just one of their last 12 matches – albeit a 5-0 hammering against Northern Ireland. However, they have only won three of those 12, which were narrow wins against Luxembourg, Northern Ireland at home, and Tanzania in a friendly.
Ireland found life tough against a resurgent Greece side and Euro finalists England, but found success against Finland – twice – with narrow victories against them both at home and on the road.
History of head-to-head
Since the turn of the 21st century, Bulgaria and Ireland have locked horns on no fewer than six occasions. More often than not, they haven’t been classics, with five of those matches ending in a draw – and four of them finishing 1-1.
Ireland last beat Bulgaria back in 2019, when goals from Alan Browne, Kevin Long and James Collins sealed the victory. However, that was a friendly, and it has been 46 years since Ireland last beat their next opponents in a competitive fixture (3-0 in the 1979 Euro qualifiers).
Their most recent match came in the 2020 UEFA Nations League, though it certainly wasn’t a classic. With just one shot on target – which came from the Bulgarians – it was no surprise to see the match end 0-0 as Bulgaria were relegated to League C, while the Irish survived by the skin of their teeth.
Neither side have improved in front of goal since their last meeting either, it seems. Bulgaria head into this encounter having scored just two goals from their last five matches. Ireland only managed to score against Finland – they drew blanks against Greece and England twice, which has led them to this unwanted position.
Can Ireland rally and secure a rare victory over Bulgaria? Or will we see a shock turnaround and Bulgaria back in Division B and Hallgrímsson relieved from his position?
Ireland line-up
Due to injuries as well as the decision to freshen up the squad, Hallgrímsson has brought in several new faces for the two matches against Bulgaria.
Seamus Coleman, who has been part of the furniture when it comes to Ireland, hasn’t made the cut due to injuries and a lack of game time. Instead, James Abankwah has been called up for the first time. The St Patrick’s youth star is currently on loan at Watford from Udinese, and has shown promise at his new club.
Joining him is Rocco Vata, who has been promoted from the under-21s after a solid season with Watford. Southampton defender Ryan Manning and Stoke City midfielder Andrew Moran have been called up due to Callum O’Dowda and Will Smallbone picking up injuries.
Hallgrímsson will have a decision to make about who will lead the line across both legs. Sinclair Armstrong has been called up, but it’s likely to be Adam Idah, Troy Parrott and Evan Ferguson who will battle it out for the number nine shirt.
Between the sticks will be Liverpool’s Caoimhin Kelleher, a strong presence who can hopefully bring confidence to the defenders in front of him. Wolves’ Matt Doherty returns to the squad with a point to prove, while the experienced Robbie Brady will look to offer support from the left side where possible.
Although there are solid defenders included within the squad and options in attack, the midfield area looks fairly light. Burnley’s Josh Cullen is destined to start, perhaps alongside Bristol City’s Jason Knight, but going forward, Hallgrimsson will need to find alternative options if he wants his team to go toe to toe with bigger nations.
No doubt in the first leg they will be looking to stay tight at the back and hit Bulgaria on the break, but the hosts will know that this is their opportunity to take a lead to Ireland the following week.
Bulgaria line-up
Bulgarian fans don’t appear to be flocking to watch their team in action, with a little over 5,000 tickets sold – and 1,000 of those are travelling Irish supporters.
It’s perhaps not difficult to see why. Bulgaria’s demise has been quicker than Ireland’s over the last decade, and their heavy defeat in Belfast shows where they are, despite their victory over Northern Ireland on home soil.
However, Ireland will need to be wary of their striker Kiril Despodov. The 28-year-old forward has played his domestic football for Greek outfit PAOK from 2023, and he has scored 14 goals in 47 appearances. For Bulgaria, he has managed to find the back of the net 15 times in 54 appearances. If Ireland are to come out on top, they will need to keep him quiet.
As stated, Ireland may have issues in the middle of the park, and that’s where Bulgaria will be looking to utilise Ilia Gruev. The Leeds United midfielder has been a central figure for his club – and country – in recent years, and the 24-year-old is the glue that keeps them together. Ireland will need to disrupt his rhythm if they are to take advantage in the first leg.
Prediction for the H2H clash
Looking at Tonybet’s odds for the match, Ireland are expected to edge the first leg in Plovdiv. However, as Northern Ireland found out, it isn’t an easy place to go and get a result. Bulgaria didn’t lose any of their home matches in 2024, and conceded just once against Belarus.
However, despite their good run of form heading into this clash, Bulgaria haven’t faced a nation that is at the level Ireland are at in a competitive fixture. Their best result came in a 1-1 draw against Slovenia in a friendly, though Bulgaria’s goal came from the penalty spot.
Against a nation that doesn’t create much, Ireland’s superior forwards have the opportunity to show why they shouldn’t be in this relegation match, and replicate their away victory against Finland in Plovdiv.
Ireland’s record against Bulgaria hasn’t been great, but with a decent following behind them, Hallgrímsson’s attacking players should create enough to take a slender lead back to Dublin next week.
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